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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I refuse to believe any of the people waffling on about paragraph 5b have read and/or understood it.

Here you go.
In summary: when two countries (or more) form a free trade agreement tariffs and trade barriers facing countries not party to the free trade agreement should not be higher than they were before the FTA existed.

What this has to do with saving us in event of no-deal is beyond me.
No one other than mega trade nerds (for whom all hope is already lost) should have ever even heard of GATT 24.
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
I think assumption that, in the event of no-deal, UK would quickly return to the negotiating table with tail between its legs shortly after is overplayed. Could see UK first doubling down and attempting to pivot towards the US and Trump.
A FTA w/ US always difficult for UK b'cos of public sensibilities (British public v European when it comes to food), but in event of no-deal an FTA w/ the US could be presented as an economic life-raft, providing political cover government needs to concede to US demands.
Despite not being the case (not even close), public assume economic losses of Brexit can be offset by trade agreement with US. So certainly possible. And costs of divergence from EU will already have been felt, so additional cost of conceding to US demands comparatively small.
Read 6 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
Timely piece by @MESandbu.

On enforceability point: argument often made that US model, which technically allows for environmental provisions to be enforced by state-to-state mechanism, may look good, but in practice no evidence of it being used successfully, but ...
@MESandbu in reality it depends on how the text is drafted. @ChadBown has made the point that reason US-Guatemala case failed is b'cos it required US to prove not only that Guatemala wasn't upholding labour commitments, but also that doing so was having material impact on trade ...
@MESandbu @ChadBown which is very difficult to prove. But that doesn’t mean having enforceable provisions destined to fail, it just means that if you want them to work the legal text needs to be drafted differently.
Read 4 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
To my knowledge, the EU has more free trade agreements than any other country/bloc. And it has concluded quite a few recently.
And sure, Canada and Japan FTAs haven’t made their way through the ratification process, but they are provisionally in place. So what more do you want.
The thing is, I get that people don’t like the EU. And there are quite a few things to point at. I just don’t understand why people create completely false narratives to justify their dislike.
Read 4 tweets

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Real_JasonJHunter
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Thread: Shall we debunk GATT Article 24 once again?

Alright then. Para 5b is the one that Brexiteers want to use to get the UK a ten year tariff and friction free border with the EU, here it is:
5(b) with respect to a free-trade area, or an interim agreement leading to the formation of a free-trade area, the duties and other regulations of commerce maintained in each of the constituent territories and applicable at the formation of such free–trade area or the ...
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