, 6 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I think assumption that, in the event of no-deal, UK would quickly return to the negotiating table with tail between its legs shortly after is overplayed. Could see UK first doubling down and attempting to pivot towards the US and Trump.
A FTA w/ US always difficult for UK b'cos of public sensibilities (British public v European when it comes to food), but in event of no-deal an FTA w/ the US could be presented as an economic life-raft, providing political cover government needs to concede to US demands.
Despite not being the case (not even close), public assume economic losses of Brexit can be offset by trade agreement with US. So certainly possible. And costs of divergence from EU will already have been felt, so additional cost of conceding to US demands comparatively small.
As in, under no-deal, we will have already left EU's SPS (food hygiene) regime, and our exports of animal origin will be subject to checks upon entering EU ... so allowing in US exports of hormone beef doesn't create any *further* cost when it comes to our trade with EU.
There are lots of supplementary questions that need answering, some incredibly important (see: Northern Ireland). But just painting out an alternative scenario that is worth considering, I think.
And, as ever, no-deal remains an incredibly silly idea.
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