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Looking at the numbers prior to @vonderleyen approval tomorrow, and in light of her letters to @TheProgressives and @RenewEurope I reckon she is likely to get through...
She needs 376 votes to be approved
EPP + S&D + Renew Europe have 443
There are 2 factors that are important here - will she have enough support to be approved per se? And does she have enough support to be approved without Fidesz, PiS, Lega etc.?
EPP + S&D + Renew Europe have 443
There are 2 factors that are important here - will she have enough support to be approved per se? And does she have enough support to be approved without Fidesz, PiS, Lega etc.?
EPP (-Fidesz) + S&D + Renew Europe have 434
Knock off the 16 German SPD MEPs (SPD say they oppose her) and you still have 418
That means you need 42 further MEPs from S&D and Renew to vote against her... And Renew didn't back the Spitz process properly anyway.
Knock off the 16 German SPD MEPs (SPD say they oppose her) and you still have 418
That means you need 42 further MEPs from S&D and Renew to vote against her... And Renew didn't back the Spitz process properly anyway.
Plus with it looking like Timmermans (S&D) and Vestager (Renew) will end up being Commission Vice Presidents, it looks to me like those groups are coming round to backing her.
It's possible I think that she might even manage to pass 376 anyway, without any populist parties from the Visegrad 4 on board.
Add the 12 Fidesz MEPs back in, and even some of the 25 PiS MEPs from Poland, and her nomination looks quite solid.
Add the 12 Fidesz MEPs back in, and even some of the 25 PiS MEPs from Poland, and her nomination looks quite solid.
Making political predictions is a mug's game, but I am now expecting her to be approved tomorrow. Sadly.
#EUtopJobs
/ends
#EUtopJobs
/ends
