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You know how Trump’s approval on the economy runs ahead of his overall approval? At @NavigatorSurvey we took a six polls worth of data to look at the small group of voters who make up that difference. The results should concern the Trump campaign... 1/? navigatorresearch.org/conflicted-abo…
First, this group wasn’t really with Trump to begin with — only 32% voted for him in 2016. Clinton won them by 7 and Democrats won them by 20 in 2018. 
While this small group rates the economy highly (81% say it’s good compared to 58% of all voters), they say — by a massive 83%-17% margin — that other factors will play a bigger role in their vote choice in 2020.
I want to pause and note that other research, including for @prioritiesUSA, has rightfully shown that those struggling in this economy are good persuasion targets for Democrats. I agree with that finding 100%. But that’s not really this group...
This is a group of people that are doing well in this economy but are being held back from supporting Trump for many of the reasons we have seen over the last week. This is the word cloud of what’s holding them back from approving of Trump:
Does that look like a group that is ready to support the President? The CW is that the economy will carry these voters across the finish line. This data argues that what they see every day from the President, the thing that will never change — who he is — is holding them back.
Also, immigration as the only policy in that word cloud raised an eyebrow for me. This is a more suburban, higher educated, higher income, more moderate, younger than overall population. Given that, it’s not surprising to see but again contrary to the CW on how immigration plays.
In sum, this looks like a Romney-Clinton-style group that is being pushed away by Trumpism. One of a number of important swing constiuencies for 2020 (though not only one). So think about this next time you see a poll showing Trump’s economic approval running ahead of his overall
