Thread by @prpeep

Thread on #Pennsylvania #pa7

Since everyone seems to be an expert on my state lately, I thought I would set the record straight on what exactly is going on here.

First, a little on me. I am an older millennial and I have lived in Pennsylvania literally my entire life. My grandfathers were a coal miner and a steel worker. My father a public school teacher.

I have been peripherally involved in politics for a long time, phone banked for HRC and now help all campaigns locally through the Dem party.

I also founded the largest online group post-2016 election, boasting 3600+ members, in the area and have held several successful events.

I was featured last night on the Van Jones show. Receipts so you know I’m not a bot.

Pennsylvania is a very unique state in that we are very purple. In general you have a blue east and west with what we call the red T in the middle, but that is an oversimplification.

All urban areas like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are very blue. But there are other areas like York City, Harrisburg, Centre County (PSU), and my home the Lehigh Valley which are also blue.

Traditionally Democrats have only focused on the two big metros, expecting them to lift up the rest of the state. That was a big mistake as we learned in 2016.

The state party let us flounder while the GOP stayed strong and organized. We lost a ton of state seats as a result.

My region, PA7, is the fastest growing region in the whole state with an influx of people from NY and NJ.

We are increasingly diverse. We have a large Latinx population mostly from Puerto Rico, a large Muslim population, and one of the largest Syrian populations in the US. You may be surprised to learn most Syrians here vote GOP.

Our region was one of the brightest spots in 2017 as we nearly swept our county elections in a twice Obama and then Trump County. I am incredibly proud of that.

Last year we became part of the blue wave electing @wildforcongress, one of the Fab Four women from Pennsylvania and the first woman to represent my region ever.

During the 2018 election @SenBobCasey and @GovernorTomWolf won by an absolute landslide. Our state government remains very red mainly due to gerrymandering. But we did win some seats.

The GOP state party in the meantime, is in shambles with recent squabbles in the headlines. Their opponent to Casey was a mini Trump and couldn’t fundraise. Casey obliterated him.

So that brings us to 2020. Pennsylvania is Biden country for sure and he does enjoy support here. However, for every older white male who says they support him, I have just as many say he is too old, including an older white Obama/Trump voter.

I know far more women, who hello have been doing all the work post 2016 from the Women’s March to the 2018 elections, who are supporting Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.

Both are often used interchangeably with preference in this demo. I’m personally a Kamala girl, but would gladly support Liz too.

Interestingly, my more conservative Dem County executive became the first elected in the state to endorse Kamala, and that is no small potatoes. He endorsed the more conservative white male against @wildforcongress to give you an idea of how remarkable that is.

Also, I am hearing more and more GOP support for her as well, which seems surprising at first, until you realize it’s bc they are attracted to her strength and style, if not her ideology. She stands up to Trump in a way their party won’t.

This is especially interesting in this state where our voters notoriously split ticket. Our Dem AG, for example, won by a large margin the same year Trump won.

Kamala still has relatively low name recognition around here. The first debate helped her immensely, if she can land another one she will be in great shape.

But don’t for a second follow along with the conventional wisdom that an older white male like Biden is a slam dunk in this state, it isn’t.

Warren made a splash with black voters in Philadelphia recently, and Kamala could help turnout there as well. We need solid turnout in the major metros, but we also need a candidate who is going to help lift our newly elected congresswomen.

Biden ain’t it. He has the money and the clout to run a decent campaign, but he is not going to ignite the following of new energy like me in the party. Only a woman can do that.