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I have been thinking more about this intriguing analysis of the US elections, and the approach the Democratic Party should take. It has definite relevance for Brexit, especially if we get a second referendum.
To win referendum 2.0, we could either
A) Convince leavers to switch
B) Convince those who didn't vote last time to vote Remain
Note: I am not saying that one shouldn't do both! We should get every vote that's there for the taking, of course. But what should the *strategy* be?
A) Convince leavers to switch
B) Convince those who didn't vote last time to vote Remain
Note: I am not saying that one shouldn't do both! We should get every vote that's there for the taking, of course. But what should the *strategy* be?
Well, what we could call the "sensible Leavers" will have made up their minds already based on the utter chaos of the last 3 years and what they've seen in the news. They will only need a gentle nudge to persuade them.
But most won't change their minds, because that would involve admitting - even to yourself, but because it's Brexit more likely to friends and family - that you're wrong. All those dinners ruined, friendships broken up, and it didn't have to be that way! That's an incredible ask.
It's also an unrealistic one. Logic won't persuade them. Focusing on the Leave wrong doing from last time certainly won't because that's the equivalent of saying "you were stupid *and* gullible".
But look over there... there's a vast crowd spanning the horizon. Close to 13 million people were registered to vote, but didn't do so at the referendum. Many will be the disaffected ("I never vote") but others will have sat out last time because it didn't seem important.
Or because the arguments were too balanced, and they weren't sure, or a myriad of other reasons. The thing is, there's nothing to suggest that the pool of voters who didn't vote is as split as the voters who did. So by appealing to them, you boost the Remain vote share.
That way, even if the raw number of votes for Leave doesn't drop much, the number of votes cast for Remain will pip theirs. And the other benefit is that, if people can really be galvanised ("This is an existential crisis for the UK") then overall turnout will be higher too.
And that will silence critics of ref 2, who have already preemptively made the spurious but superficially appealing argument "where's the legitimacy if the result goes the other way, but overall turnout is lower?"
Does that mean that Leave should get off scott-free for all the bad stuff last time? No. And the process of justice is still ongoing. But going on and on about the flawed nature of the first referendum is unlikely to be winning support from the *right* group of people.
Because it just as easily makes the Remain camp look "bad losers", an association that Leave are happy to emphasize at every opportunity. The answer isn't to double down and get even louder about the dark money and interference. It is to think again, and take a different slant.
