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So, @Jonathan_Rowson's tweet got me thinking. We face a strange situation: pretty much all of the main players in our politics are detached from important parts of reality. #Brexit 1/
The loudest Remainers seem to want to go back to 2016. They are detached from pre-ref reality: there had been failures of UK democracy for decades. #Brexit 2/
In particular, voices were muted who didn’t like the pace or nature of change, who were being left behind & left out. UK didn’t treat key ‘minorities’ with respect. #Brexit 3/
The loudest Brexiters cling to ‘any out is better than any in’. But the A50 process has exposed massive gap between how their mental model & how the modern world works. Some examples: #Brexit 4/
a. In an inter-dependent world, with 2 main regulators whose rules extend well-beyond legal boundaries (US & EU), pure sovereignty does not give you control. It leaves you without influence. #Brexit 5/
b. The UK is a reasonably-sized economy, but deeply integrated with a behemoth. Our bargaining power is limited. We need them more than they need us. #Brexit 6/
c. The focus was on 'hard vs soft’. But that ignored ‘fast vs slow’. We can only un-integrate quickly by being reckless. #Brexit 7/
d. Yes, most future growth will be outside EU. But manufacturing is now close-knit value webs (not chains) around regional hubs (Factory Europe, Factory Asia etc). Gravity means EU will be our main trade partner. #Brexit 8/
e. Yes, many people feeling left behind & left out (therefore want to take back control). But leaving EU won’t help on the causes. Much more about centralisation & Westminster than EU & Brussels. #Brexit 9/
f. Democracy is an on-going process, not an event. Yes, previously-silenced groups have been heard. But that doesn’t justify silencing previously-dominant groups. #Brexit 10/
Korzybski: 'the map is not the territory'. Things go very, badly wrong when you *require* reality to comply with your mental map. See: financial crisis (‘all free markets are efficient & don’t make mistakes'); & climate change (‘all growth is good’). 11/
Brexiteers in particular requiring reality to comply with their mental map. Any evidence of mental map wrong (eg German car makers on single market) is taken as evidence of betrayal. 12/
Still. Impacts in people’s daily lives so far minor. No grassroots, wide-ranging call to stop Brexit. The polls tick up for Remain, but hardly a huge change of mind. Why? 13/
Unger: 'the task of imagination is to experience the crisis before the crisis’. Only people who follow closely have been imagining the crises to come. 14/
Those who don’t follow closely (that's what they elect representatives for) are still being fed the unreality by main political players & their media megaphones. Know something is awry but blame the other side (eg EU, civil servants, Remain betrayers etc). 15/
The question is how & when will the gap between mental models and reality close. A quick, unambiguous crisis (eg No Deal)? Maybe, but lots of damage. 16/
When (/if) we leave, UK will have a quick bounce, then a long, slow crisis. Protracted EU FTA negotiation EU as UK sectors lobby for keeping alignment. Stagnation, as reduced investment from 2016-onwards is felt. 17/
The more Tories undermine institutions (civil service, judiciary), more removes constraints on radical turn (oh, & prove they are not truly conservative). Given betrayal, failure & anger, much more likely a hard right turn. 18/
Another ref on terms (May’s Deal or Remain?) risks reinforcing divisions. But *manner* matters. Agree w @AnthonyBarnett: new ref would hinge on issue of principle. Just attempting to reverse 2016 or agreeing there is a huge democratic problem but leaving EU won't help?) 19/
All ways of getting back in touch with reality involve suffering for ordinary people, & humiliation for main political players. Just a question of when, who & how much. And then, whether have a leader who reaches across divides to pick up the pieces. ENDS/
@Sime0nStylites this thread also part-inspired by your excellent thread this morning.
