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1/ Understand that a convex payoff does NOT mean Antifragility, Ex- BTC could have convex payoffs and lead to ruin (go to zero). If ruin (left tail risk) is present, you could have a short time reaping convex payoffs.
2/ Much like the "Precautionary Principle", if your business has a non-zero chance of ruin, you're going to blow up with enough time.
3/ Nearly all entrepreneurs understand convex payoffs. For me, learning to clip left tail risk was expensive in time, resources and dare I say it, soul crushing
4/ So, there really is no way to have a non-zero chance of eliminating ruin (you could drop dead suddenly), one needs to be paranoid and obsessed with RUIN FIRST.
Convexity may be a heuristic for AF, it is not da same ting as AF. Enjoy convexity but never take eye off left tail. AF cannot last forever.
