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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 12 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Borisnomics - new PM’s hands on three significant levers to reshape economic policy

- Trade policy via some sort of Brexit
- Fiscal Policy loosen rules to spend/end austerity
- Monetary Policy - choosing new Bank of England Gov, to help boost econ...

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
First spot of deficit spending?
- a new Number 10 lectern
HM the Queen confirms Boris Johnson as the UK’s new Prime Minister... Dyson fan cools things in background...
PM Johnson: “the doubters the doomsayers and gloomsters have got it wrong - we will come out of the EU on October 31st no ifs no buts”
PM Johnson:

we will begin with 20000 police and we start recruiting forthwith
20 new hospital upgrades...
I am now announcing we will fix the crisis in social care to give dignity and security to every older person...
Level up per pupils spending in education...
“Never mind the backstop, the buck stops here,” says the new PM... he says he’ll give business confidence to invest...
Johnson says that Brexit was a decision the people made to ensure decisions are made by people they can elect etc
Johnson says he can do a Brexit deal without Irish border checks, and calls the backstop “anti-democratic”
PM Johnson: “The ports will be ready, the banks will be ready, the farms will be ready” for a No Deal Brexit he says...
Says there will be an Autumn support package for business... admits there will be “difficulties”
PM says there’ll be tax cuts on business and capital...

“Let’s start now on the free trade deals...,” - although can’t be actually negotiated until after Brexit...

“It’s time to change the record”
On the 20 hospital projects - going to presume for now, but checking that this is in addition to the already annnounced billion on these 75 projects announced in December... gov.uk/government/new…
Tax cuts downplayed more spending emphasised -
focussed on areas of doorstep weakness for his party
20,000 extra police - £1bn but reverses post 2010 cuts
20 hospital upgrades - £2-300m?
Levelling up education spending to £5k pp - minimal as new Nat funding formula already £4.8k
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
In foreign exchange markets there are different ways of calculating historic lows, depending on whether it was day close, or intraday, or for really long time periods weekly/ monthly close. Also you can have NY or London close, and generally people seem to have slightly diff data
.. late last night however, sterling fell significantly, again, to multi year closing lows against both dollar and euro - the vast bulk of its trade-weighted strength...
Anyway - sterling against the single currency the current closing value is €1.0737 - the last time it was lower than this on the Bank of England chart was €1.0706 on 14 October 2009...
1/2
Read 8 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
ONS: 0.2% fall in GDP in Q2 - first fall for 7 years - worse than expected
... on that number technical recession possible though not most likely. Probably now in the middle of weakest 2 quarters for growth since the financial crisis, weakest Q1-Q3 since financial crisis...
If consensus expectations correct, it will be weakest showing in G7.
Falls in manufacturing biggest in a decade, driven by No Deal car plant shutdowns, falls in production overall biggest since 2012. Service sector growth slowest in three years.

Consumer held up though.

But this is basically broad based, some of it down to one-offs, but not all
Read 9 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
So it’s UK GDP day...

Heading up to one of the logistical/ warehousing, transport & trade hubs for filming...

Widely expected to show zero growth in the second quarter - April to June, amid slowing global growth, one-off Brexit factors, and wider poor UK business investment...
Plus or minus 0.1 also possible. At 0 or below - would be weakest quarterly figures for 7 years, since Eurozone crisis. Some of that is distortion from displaced growth because of No Deal Brexit stockpiling, & car industry shutdowns, but not all...
Looking through the individual quarter... at say, 0.. and with a soft 0.3% expected in this quarter, recession escaped, but weakest two quarters for a decade... indeed even with Q1 at 0.5%, that would be slowest Q1-Q3 since financial crisis 2009
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Ahem. Sorry to intrude on today's Westminster drama but....

A faction of the Tory Party is trying to unseat @theresa_may over the the Irish backstop #Brexit

But here is why it isn't going away. Whatever happens. Deal or no deal. 1/Thread
@theresa_may First, the simple politics.

The ERG hates the backstop. They want a unilateral exit clause - but the more they talk about that, the more the EU and Irish are going to cling to the need for a backstop that guarantees no return to a hard border. /2
@theresa_may But let us say, for sake of argument, that the ERG gets its way.

The brave new PM (Raab, Boris, DD or whoever) rides into Brussels with an ultimatum: it's the deal-minus-backstop, or No deal.

And against all the odds and predictions of smart alecs like me, the EU caves... /3
Read 20 tweets
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Anthony Painter
@anthonypainter
New @theRSAorg publication out today. Ideas for a 21st Century Enlightenment. It is accompanied by a survey that shows deep pessimism about the future and a strong desire to reach beyond #Brexit thersa.org/discover/publi…
75% see #brexit as distracting from other pressing issues - both remain and leave supporters agree. People do trust experts. But they want a greater voice and say themselves. Only 21% think Britain will be better in 2030 than today. And yet, we don't despair.
We propose a new way forward on education - @JulianAstle and @LauraJPartridge explore what education for enlightenment looks like - mission-led by teachers, parents, and communities. thersa.org/discover/educa… #edutwitter #education
Read 8 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets

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