Thread by @MacroTechnicals

MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly Recap wk30 as of 26Jul19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• stocks mixed, SPX outperformed RoW
• Tech+Banks top, Miners PT
• Creditspreads tighter
• CMDTY driven FX weaker
• ZA downgraded by Fitch
• TR CBRT cut -425bp
• v volatile post ECB session

2/n Global Markets monthly performance update ...as we nearly end RiskOn July

3/n Global Markets update YTD as of wk30 = RiskOn 2019 so far

4/n Global Markets update overview WoW / MoM / YTD / YoY as of wk30

5/n update FX Matrix wk30

CMDTY driven NOK NZD AUD sold...ZAR weakened too but also Fitch downgraded South Africa from stable to negative outlook

6/n update Global 10Y Govt Bond heatmap

• global bond rally continued (most of them at least) in the current disinflationary / growth slowdown

7/n update Global CB 2Y 10Y FX overview as of wk30

• mostly bull flattening

• ECB, Hungary, left rates unch

• Turkey CBRT cut 425bp

• South Africa Moody raised concern about Eskom and is only RA on IG, Fitch downgraded from stable to negative outlook on budget deficit

8/n update Global Mkts Momentum / Trend / Exhaustion scores as of wk30

• SPY QQQ new 52wk hi
• CDX HY new 52wk lo
• many IBOXX sector credit spreads 52wk lo
• EURUSD, GBPUSD new 52wk lo

9/n US RiskGauges update wk30

• CDX NA IG < avg + tighter YoY
• VIX spot < avg and grinding towards complacency

...but so far: RiskOn remains (or buying protection is cheap, however you want to read this)

10/n next week FOMC

• priced in (as of Friday) 79% -25bp cut, 21% even -50bp cut

• some hard domestic macro data, stock mkt, credit spreads etc don't reflect any cut, but it's the global outlook...and FED, US$, US Rates, US Stocks the most relevant benchmarks/funding for all

11/n FOMC will cut, as the markets has been pricing in for a long time, but important is now the language, hints of how many more and potentially QE4.

12/n and this is on everyone's radar now : key support is either just starting to be broken, tested

• EURUSD on bad macro outlook (IFO worsened yet again, flash PMI sucked)

• GBPUSD new PM Johnson preparing for hard BREXIT

• AUDUSD with dovish RBA and China slowdown etc

13/n USDZAR

• as said before, Moody's is concerned on Eskom bailout and MDY is also the last rating agency with investment grade

• FITCH downgraded to negative outlook from stable

• CB just cut 25bp

• last week ZAR got sold

14/n USDTRY

• CBRT cut (finally) rates, a whooping -425bp

• Credit Risk compared to Aug/Sep2018 and recent May2019 peaks eased, CDS curve normalised and tightened outright

• Bonds obviously followed suit

• 25D RR reversed in May too and grinding slower

• TRY nearly +10%

15/n next week mega Macro week

• TUE: European Economic sentiment ESI ( May ESI thread threadreaderapp.com/thread/1133510…

• WED: FOMC

• THU: BoE and Global PMI ( June PMI thread threadreaderapp.com/thread/1146842…

• FRI #NFPGuesses lol

= overall another broker/algo party = vola

16/n that's all ... enjoy the rest of the Sunday x

17/end @threadreaderapp unroll