Thread by @C_Barraud

🇺🇸 #SPX (1) | Equities ⬆ significantly since Dec. lows with participants not taking into account:
1/ the global synchronised slowdown that should be associated with a global trade contraction (YoY) soon
2/ the likely earnings recession in U.S. (and 🇪🇺)

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1099353642509979649

🇺🇸 #SPX (2) | The move can be partly explained by the dovish switch in CBs:
1/ #Fed makes a pause in ⬆ rates and should should stop ⬇ its BS by year-end
2/ #ECB is likely to delay its 1st rate ⬆ and will launch new TLTROs
3/ #BOJ is considering 4 options for extra easing

🇺🇸 #SPX (3) | This easing charge has significant repercussions on asset prices leading to a sharp ⬆ of bonds trading with negative yields (up 60% since Oct. according to a Bloomberg/Barclays index)

➡ #TINA can also explain why investors have rushed into other risky assets

🇺🇸 #SPX (4) | Cos appear to be the driving force behind the sharp rebound.
*Bofa highlighted that on YTD basis, buybacks are already tracking far above last year's records, and are 91% higher compared to the same period in 2018.
*Link: on.wsj.com/2ElZcRi

🇺🇸 #SPX (5) | Bloomberg also suggests that potential restrictions on US buybacks have boosted activity.
A buyback gauge widened its lead 11 times in the first 12 trading days after the NYT published a call for limits on stock buybacks by Chuck Schumer and Bernie Sanders

🇺🇸 #SPX (6) | Optimism concerning a US-#China trade deal (that would result in up to 1.2T$ of 🇨🇳 purchases and a suppression of existing tariffs) and the absence of a No-deal #Brexit also explains the absence of dip.
*The S&P 500 Index has gained 72.2% of all trading sessions.

🇺🇸 #SPX (7) | The sharp rebound has resulted in a significant short squeeze. @zerohedge (citing GS) highlighted that “the share of S&P 500 market cap held short is now at the lowest level since 2007”
zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-2…

🇺🇸 #SPX (8) | In the coming weeks, equities (which look overbought) should be vulnerable to small disappointments.
*The proportion of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average remains above 92%.
*The equity benchmark’s 14-day RSI remains in overbought territory.

🇺🇸 #SPX (9) | Also of note, the VIX closed at 13.51 (lowest since Oct. 3, 2018) while the CNN Fear & Greed Index rose to 69 (Greed Zone) vs 68 on Thursday.
*Link: cnnmon.ie/2Lwe7cq

🇺🇸 #SPX (10) | There are also signs of divergences with:
*Cyclical shares underperforming their defensive counterparts
*BAA spread not following SPX move