Thread by @NateSilver538

Not clear how successful. Trump had a 38% favorability rating on Election Day 2016, per the exit poll, much worse than Mitt Romney's 48% in 2012. But Hillary was at 43% as compared to Obama's 53%. His success came mostly from running vs. a candidate almost as unpopular as he was.

https://twitter.com/gabrielsherman/status/1155504734872190977

Sure, the story is more complicated than that. Clinton's low favorability rating is not exogenous from Trump's strategy. Also, the Electoral College obviously mattered a lot and gives greater influence to white working-class voters and strategies that cater to them.

But "#Actually, Trump's strategy of stoking racial resentment is #smart politics!" isn't a great take. The evidence for it is murky, and became murkier after the GOP/Trump's bad midterm in 2018.

Reporters and pundits shouldn't go around spouting it like it's a savvy take.