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Scott Lincicome
@scottlincicome
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
One of the best parts of my latest @JonahRemnant appearance is how @JonahNRO & @jackbutler4815 basically call me a trade nerd yet use a bunch of Sci-fi/fantasy references that I totally don't get (tho at the time I nodded along to be nice to the nerds).
theremnant.blubrry.net/2019/07/29/epi…
But more seriously I really enjoyed the second half of the discussion on National Conservativism and what I like to call Flight 93 Policymaking. More on that to come.
So what is "Flight 93 Policymaking"? It's the increasingly-common (and thus increasingly-troubling) view on the right that Issue X is so disastrous & urgent that it warrants the wholesale abandonment of one's once-core principles
It's especially troubling bc the evidence cited to show said disastrousness/urgency is usually flimsy (at best) & pushed by non-experts, yet accepted as gospel. Certainly not isolated to trade, either. It's *pervasive*. Big problem.
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Scott Lincicome
@scottlincicome
This NYT piece is a great example of the realities - not armchair punditry - of Trump’s trade war: “This Boutique Bike Shop Shows How Trump’s Tariffs Can Hit the Little Guy” nyti.ms/2I6NVoP

Some lessons follow... /1
Supply chains are not easy to move: "Pello’s experience details why shifting to non-tariffed nations might be easier said than done for a small company. Mr. Cusick is considering moving production out of China, but such a move would take time and money." /2
Sometimes it's just impossible: "The cycling industry’s reliance on China is not unique. China dominates entire import product categories…." /3
Read 7 tweets
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Scott Lincicome
@scottlincicome
A thread on where I think we are in the Trade War:

As I've been saying now for a year, Trump's tariffs - good summary below from CRS (fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R4…) - have so far been dumb, ineffective and painful (a little for everyone & a LOT for some) /1
And we now have plenty of anecdotes, business surveys AND academic research (of actual effects, not predictions) on the actual pain for importers & exporters, e.g.:

bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/upl…
nber.org/digest/may19/w…
/2
We also see (so far) no Great Trade Deals - a big (supposedly) reason for the tariffs - completed, & at this pt there's a very real chance that none of them will be anytime soon:

So this has clearly been dumb/bad policy thus far /3
Read 14 tweets
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Scott Lincicome
@scottlincicome
New IMF analysis of NAFTA 2.0 (USMCA) predicts it will have a small overall impact, but generate aggregate welfare LOSSES & bigger trade deficits for the USA:
imf.org/en/Publication…
h/t @accfanto
@accfanto The economic model used here is the same type used by the US ITC in its forthcoming official analysis of the USMCA. If it produces similar results... hoo boy.
Read 5 tweets

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BLACK HISTORY MONTH. Throughout February, 2019- I will be posting a thread about the contributions of African-American & other African heritage persons to the genres/mediums of science fiction, horror, fantasy, comic books & video games. "Real Life" & "Fictional" characters.
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I’m watching all of the @Marvel movies with @ThereseTheBeast, we are going in release order over the next 8 weeks leading up to #AvengersInfinityWar

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The colors in Black Panther and Thor 3 have come a long way since 2008.
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