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Good morning🌪️. China manufacturing PMI stabilizes but still contracts at 49.7 while services slow to 53.7 from 54.2.
But don't get excited - China stabilization is less helpful to the region & global econ as before as it's using the CA as a 1st line of defense (imports down).
But don't get excited - China stabilization is less helpful to the region & global econ as before as it's using the CA as a 1st line of defense (imports down).
Yes, storm is here in #HongKong , literally & figuratively. T3 they say. Last night, US data was strong - consumer confidence off the chart for both expectations & present. PCE up1.6% from 1.5%YoY & pending home sales up MoM. Tonight is ADP & Fed at 2am. The wind's howling on L72
Two things to note from the PMIs & industrial profit data: a) some sectors are doing fine, like services & food etc, but they are slowing; b) the ones doing badly are stabilizing but at a low level.
In other words, don't expect a hard landing but a V-shaped recovery elusive.
In other words, don't expect a hard landing but a V-shaped recovery elusive.
Let's look at some of the bottom up data (industrial profit data comes from firms' data). According to Bloomberg, of the 1600 firms giving 1st half guidance, 40% predicted a drop in earnings. That E in your PE ratio is trending lower & "cheap" is relative.
For those on not in finance, PE or price to earnings/earnings multiples (or stock price/earnings per share) is often used metric by investment analysts as a way to see valuation (expensive/cheap). What they usually do is take the PE & compare to other PEs & say "DISCOUNTED!"
Anyway, before u question Mr. Market's wisdom (like why guys like Kospi, SHCOMP, HSI are "cheap"), ask yourself: Do you have more information than Mr. Market, like do you know Asia more than the investors that are active? If markets are discounting certain markets, do u know why?
If u don't know why, then have to figure it out. Mr. Market rewards those that do their hw over time. Here is how Mr. Market is valuating different indices: "Cheapest" is Russia & "Expensive" is India. Not only are diff indices have diff industries, they have different governance
And in my humble opinion, of the 3 letters in ESG, governance is most important and so should be GES as ES can't exist without a good G. Btw, a good G is fundamental to all due diligence investment process & the hardest one to crack, but fun nonetheless.
