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Mr. Market hoped & pray for a rate cut & priced it & got it & somehow not pleased (perhaps the sobering realization of buy the rumours & sell the facts that the Fed is no panacea to Brexit, China slowdown, trade-war)
Dollar strong (@natixis call 💪🏻) Fed done ✅ Caixin PMI today!
Dollar strong (@natixis call 💪🏻) Fed done ✅ Caixin PMI today!
@natixis And good morning 🌪️🌧️. Don't worry, postmortem of Fed & US & Asian data coming. The wind 🌪️🌬️ is howling so intensely on level 72 right now 🥶 (I work in the tallest building in Hong Kong).
@natixis US: July ADP rocked it by rising 156k vs102 prev & higher than 150 expected. Chicago PMI very weak. Fed cut by 25bps but markets unhappy b/c of 2 dissenters (Esther & Eric) & what JPO said, "It’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts...didn’t say it’s just one rate cut. 
@natixis Meaning, JPO wants Mr. Market to curb his enthusiasm for cuts & only pricing 1-way direction for asset prices. Another to say is, he never promised you a 🌹 rose garden. US data was a mix bag & key reason for caution. Markets repriced immediately - something I warned u about 👇🏻.
@natixis If H1 2019 was Mr. Market cheering of "extension" then H2 2019 is 👇🏻. Remember that the Fed is no panacea & can only help dull the pain, at best an opiate. And if you got tons of debt, low interest expense doesn't change the size of the principal balance.
@natixis d) ✅Fed cut but no panacea sadly & doesn't promise much much more (doesn't mean more won't come so markets focus on 👇🏻
c) ✅China growth slows - Caixin manu PMI today & state yesterday shows stabilization but still contraction; let's not forget that imports by China contracting;
c) ✅China growth slows - Caixin manu PMI today & state yesterday shows stabilization but still contraction; let's not forget that imports by China contracting;
@natixis Korea manufacturing PMI contracted further to 47.3 from 47.5 (Malaysia worse, Thailand worse, Indonesia worse, Taiwan still contracting but pace less). Vietnam and the Philippines expanded 👏🏻
China at 945am & unlikely to pop above 50 (expansion vs previously month
China at 945am & unlikely to pop above 50 (expansion vs previously month
@natixis China Caixin PMI rose to 49.9 from 49.4 and expectations of 49.5 🇨🇳, just a hair away from 50. Still contracting but close to expansion.
Phew, so happy to talk about economics again🤗
Phew, so happy to talk about economics again🤗
@natixis Details of the Caixin manu PMI:
a) Production output edged up but remained low
b) Employment falls again
c) Confidence improves.
Stabilization is the word of the year. This means a soft landing for China, but this is no respite for exporters in the region that depend on China.
a) Production output edged up but remained low
b) Employment falls again
c) Confidence improves.
Stabilization is the word of the year. This means a soft landing for China, but this is no respite for exporters in the region that depend on China.
