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@Brendandonn’s piece makes the powerful case that it will be very hard to stop the Johnson Government from proceeding with a no deal Brexit if it is not brought down by a vote of no confidence in September (so an election could be held before Halloween).
My own firm view is that if the government were not brought down until October and a general election then resulted (which could not then be held until after Halloween) the purdah convention would require Johnson to apply for an extension:
See the thread leading up to this tweet - a debate between me and @RobertCraig3 on the point. I greatly respect Robert but I think his view that the purdah convention would not require an extension is wrong.
But conventions are conventions: and I for one would not bet on the Johnson government respecting a convention where the convention would require it to do what it has painted itself into not doing.
It is I think arguable that the courts could intervene, but there are a number of difficulties there: the courts do not enforce conventions (see the discussion of the Sewel Convention in Miller).
The challenge would have to shoehorn a basic point about democracy (an outgoing government should not preempt the decision of the people by taking irreversible action on a core issue in the election) into public law grounds. Runnable, I think: but no one could be sure of success.
And timing would be very tight (any extension requires Parliament to agree - but Parliament would be dissolved shortly after an election was called).
It would be, constitutionally, be possible after a VONC in October for a “national unity” Government to be put together to stop no deal in the 14 days between a VONC and the triggering of an election (Fixed Term Parliaments Act).
It is generally agreed that if it were clear during the 14 days that such a government led by X would command the confidence of the Commons, the Queen would be required to invite X to form a government (which would then win a vote of confidence, stopping an election).
But the politics of that are distinctly tricky.
So I think Brendan is right: if the band of Tory MPs who oppose no deal really want to stop it, they are going to have to move to back a no confidence vote in September: anything is seriously risky.
Of course, the threat of a no confidence vote might produce concessions by the government. But it’s hard to see, now, what room the government has given itself to make concessions in return for its survival.
And trust in the government to honour any concessions it did make is not, I suspect, very high.
And, finally, you should never make a threat you are not prepared to follow up on: basic rule of litigation and life.
So anti-no deal Tory MPs need to think carefully over August: they need to be prepared to bring the government down in September.
