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1. Amid all the argument, the Brexit Select Committee took evidence recently from representatives of the UK’s most important industries and services. We asked them what No Deal would mean to them, listened to what they had to say and concluded the following in our report:
2. “The Government’s own economic assessment shows that a “no deal” exit from the EU would be the most economically damaging outcome for the UK, with the effect most pronounced in the North East and the West Midlands....”
3. ...and the chemical, retail, food and drink and manufacturing sectors would be hardest hit.....The Government’s own analysis reinforces our previous conclusion that attempting a “managed no deal” cannot constitute the policy of any responsible Government.”
4. On services, “The Government has said that, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, then UK businesses would be treated as third-country service providers by the EU. The UK would risk a loss of market access and an increase in non-tariff barriers.”
5. The Government’s own modelling found that “moving to WTO terms, and the consequences of non-tariff barriers being raised, would have the greatest impact on UK services compared to all the possible outcomes. “
6. “Leaving the EU without a deal would mean that the UK automotive sector would be subject to the EU’s Common External Tariff on its exports to the EU27, its largest market, adding costs estimated at around £2,700 for UK cars.”
7. “These costs would undermine the competitiveness of UK exported cars compared to cars manufactured and traded within the EU and cars manufactured in countries, including South Korea and Japan, with free trade agreements with the EU.”
8. ”It is clear that a no deal exit would result in the UK automotive sector—a great British success story—being put at a competitive disadvantage.”
9. As for farming “UK producers would face high tariffs exporting to the EU, currently the market for over two-thirds of UK agri-food exports.....Sheep meat would face a tariff approaching 50%, bringing the viability of that sector into question. “
10. “...we have no reason to doubt the concern that no deal would lead to some interruptions to food supplies in respect of certain products or to doubt the analysis of the NFU that no deal would be “disastrous” for UK farming. “
11. “The success of the UK’s chemical and pharmaceutical sectors rests on highly-integrated just-in-time supply chains. A disorderly no deal would disrupt these supply chains overnight, and.....
12. “....according to the Government’s own figures, would reduce GVA for the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors by over 20% over 15 years, compared to what it would have been had the UK not left the EU”
13. “Some have argued that a no deal exit would bring the EU “back to the table” and that the UK would secure a better deal as a result. This is, at best, a gamble....”
14. “....At worst, it could lead to severe disruption of the economy, pose a fundamental risk to the competitiveness of key sectors of the UK economy, and put many jobs and livelihoods at risk. “
15. Given this, and since ministers know how damaging No Deal will be and that there is no mandate for it, it is utterly irresponsible for the Government to be rushing headlong towards it. Read the Select Committee’s full report here. publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cm…
