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BREAKING:
*U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD BELOW 2-YEAR RATE FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2007
The last three times this happened, U.S. recessions soon followed.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
*U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD BELOW 2-YEAR RATE FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2007
The last three times this happened, U.S. recessions soon followed.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The curve inversion is getting deeper
Meanwhile, the stock market is falling out of bed bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The way I see it is, maybe the yield curve inversion is different this time, and maybe it's the same this time.
But from the Fed's perspective, I see very little cost in terms of taking the signal very seriously, and a high potential cost of dismissing it.
But from the Fed's perspective, I see very little cost in terms of taking the signal very seriously, and a high potential cost of dismissing it.
People who say the ycurve has lost its signal because of "blah blah blah central bank manipulation"... I've never found that compelling. At any given time, the market is going to be pricing based on expectations of the future policy rate path. Seems the same as it always has.
ONE BIG THING: As Trump's re-election bid kicks into higher gear, there are already signs that the manufacturing economy is decelerating. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
