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6 tweets,
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1/
Very small thread on why both many Remainers & Leavers are missing the point with "Boris' renegotiations" - the worst thing for Boris Johnson is if the EU actually accepts an amended deal.
If this happens Boris Johnson will be destroyed - consider the following...
Very small thread on why both many Remainers & Leavers are missing the point with "Boris' renegotiations" - the worst thing for Boris Johnson is if the EU actually accepts an amended deal.
If this happens Boris Johnson will be destroyed - consider the following...
2/
Any amended deal would still have to address N Ire problem, The Tories have spent the last year trashing the WA an amended one even with some changes wont bring a golden age utopia - simply because nothing ever does - what it will bring is continual negotiations with the EU..
Any amended deal would still have to address N Ire problem, The Tories have spent the last year trashing the WA an amended one even with some changes wont bring a golden age utopia - simply because nothing ever does - what it will bring is continual negotiations with the EU..
3/
Whats more the EU are hardly like to soften up backstop & then give ground on £39bn, EU citizens rights etc aswell. In other words Boris is a victim of his propaganda - his support depends on "all out victory" against EU or no deal.
But what if EU offer small concessions?
Whats more the EU are hardly like to soften up backstop & then give ground on £39bn, EU citizens rights etc aswell. In other words Boris is a victim of his propaganda - his support depends on "all out victory" against EU or no deal.
But what if EU offer small concessions?
4/
What level of concessions could EU offer that would now defuse Brexit party, ERG, Tory membership? There are none that EU could give now (some might have been acceptable in 2016) but its gone way beyond this now....
What level of concessions could EU offer that would now defuse Brexit party, ERG, Tory membership? There are none that EU could give now (some might have been acceptable in 2016) but its gone way beyond this now....
5/
So Boris needs 2 things to happen, either:
1. EU reject UK govt suggestions
2. Parliament rejects UK govts plans
He can come back from this, can deflect blame, fight a GE on parliament vs people.
But a rehashed EU deal now even less popular amongst base than with May as PM
So Boris needs 2 things to happen, either:
1. EU reject UK govt suggestions
2. Parliament rejects UK govts plans
He can come back from this, can deflect blame, fight a GE on parliament vs people.
But a rehashed EU deal now even less popular amongst base than with May as PM
6/
But with one difference. May was never going to be a longterm PM, she didnt need it & she was PM for 3 years.
The last thing Boris can suffer now is instant collapse of his base with no majority.
He will be finished within months.
Boris needs EU to reject his "new deal".
But with one difference. May was never going to be a longterm PM, she didnt need it & she was PM for 3 years.
The last thing Boris can suffer now is instant collapse of his base with no majority.
He will be finished within months.
Boris needs EU to reject his "new deal".
