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7 tweets,
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1/
So here goes a small thread which might annoy some leavers & remainers - on why there is some logic behind Boris Johnson's Brexit strategy.
His strategy makes some kind of sense but only if you understand Boris is not bluffing the EU - he's bluffing another group(s) entirely.
So here goes a small thread which might annoy some leavers & remainers - on why there is some logic behind Boris Johnson's Brexit strategy.
His strategy makes some kind of sense but only if you understand Boris is not bluffing the EU - he's bluffing another group(s) entirely.
2/
Johnson must know he cant just bluff the EU into conceding his red lines - thats not the point.
Johnson's battle is to win the next election - thats more important to the Conservatives than the final form of Brexit that eventually emerges - likely years down the line.
Johnson must know he cant just bluff the EU into conceding his red lines - thats not the point.
Johnson's battle is to win the next election - thats more important to the Conservatives than the final form of Brexit that eventually emerges - likely years down the line.
3/
The Tory Party always wanted a deal but so long as no one believed May's no deal bluff then the choice was always between her deal & delay or even revoke.
Johnson's aim is to give Parliament & the Labour Party the choice between a deal & no deal.
If he does that, he wins.
The Tory Party always wanted a deal but so long as no one believed May's no deal bluff then the choice was always between her deal & delay or even revoke.
Johnson's aim is to give Parliament & the Labour Party the choice between a deal & no deal.
If he does that, he wins.
4/
May for all her faults wouldnt risk this. Johnson though will.
He's not bluffing the EU, he's bluffing MPs & the media.
Vote for Johnson's brexit or get no deal & the collapse of the UK.
This vote can take place before or after an election - the strategy is the same.
May for all her faults wouldnt risk this. Johnson though will.
He's not bluffing the EU, he's bluffing MPs & the media.
Vote for Johnson's brexit or get no deal & the collapse of the UK.
This vote can take place before or after an election - the strategy is the same.
5/
This makes sense when you consider no one cares about the deal itself now. There are no big debateson TV about the N Irish solution simply because we all know what the solution must be.
The strategy is to put UK in a place where its a crap deal vs destruction.
i.e. no choice.
This makes sense when you consider no one cares about the deal itself now. There are no big debateson TV about the N Irish solution simply because we all know what the solution must be.
The strategy is to put UK in a place where its a crap deal vs destruction.
i.e. no choice.
6/
Whats more Johnson will win enough Labour MPs to outvore the remaining ERG hardliners simply because Labour MPs cant be seen to have facilitated no deal brexit.
As Brexit reality emerges Labour will then attack it as "Boris Brexit" but it will too late then.
Whats more Johnson will win enough Labour MPs to outvore the remaining ERG hardliners simply because Labour MPs cant be seen to have facilitated no deal brexit.
As Brexit reality emerges Labour will then attack it as "Boris Brexit" but it will too late then.
7/
If you want to stop, delay or soften Brexit you have to understand you cannot let Johnson determine the choice.
If you do - you've already lost.
If you want to stop, delay or soften Brexit you have to understand you cannot let Johnson determine the choice.
If you do - you've already lost.
