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1/ #Brexit returns to Brussels this week: EU/U.K negotiations, EU's Art. 50 Working Party meets Tuesday and Thursday (under the usual `no-phones, laptops, tablets allowed' restriction), EU ambassadors to discuss state of play on Wednesday. So what could come out of these talks?
2/ First, worth remembering that EU negotiators *don't have a mandate* to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. The extension granted in April explicitly forbids them to do so. Read it: consilium.europa.eu/media/39042/10…
3/ In other words, the U.K can only choose between the backstop and the NI-only backstop. It has rejected both, so you may wonder what's the point. Well, one possible (albeit unlikely) outcome which could pave the way for a breakthrough may be a unilateral declaration by the U.K
4/ April's EUCO decision allows for such unilateral statements (if they don't contradict WA). It's a path tried before by May, and didn't work. But with time now running out for real (as current UK govt has excluded further extension), it just may convince enough UK MPs in Oct.
5/ Even more unlikely, the UK comes up with a proposal for the Irish border deemed realistic by Brussels, in which case Barnier would ask EU govts to give him a new mandate to reopen the WA. If there was such a realistic proposal, surely negotiators would have uncovered it by now
6/ Then there's the prospect of vote of no confidence in the UK, new government, extension, elections and - depending on the outcome - new referendum or no-deal exit. Also not very easy or straightforward paths bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
7/ Hence, I think, the point in Barnier's Telegraph column that he's not optimistic a deal can be reached. With everything else looking such a long shot, no deal appears to be the most realistic path at the moment. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
8/ But in any case, despite the pessimism, the EU is eager to show it is engaged and committed, hence the frenzy of meetings. No one wants to take the blame for the ensuing mess and the EU is desperate to show that that it was all a UK decision
