, 23 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter
1/n The secret of higher education: colleges are actually HIGHLY effective at their true purpose(s)

This is why I am skeptical that alternatives to college are *solely* what will fix our higher ed system (although they certainly help!)

THREAD:
2/n What is the main differentiator between colleges and alternative models (boot camps, MOOCs, etc.), besides colleges being partly a consumption good?

A truly unique and hard-to-replicate credential.

3/n Colleges provide a credential that signals what most employers *actually* want: a high-dependability and (usually) sociable function executor.

At most companies, employees are largely risk mitigation strategies. “You are buying dependability”:

medium.com/incerto/how-to…
4/n This is part of why college is effective *for employers* as a labor curator & hard to recreate

You have to create a better proof-of-work, not just better curricula or teachers

Many of the supposed inefficiencies of colleges are actually important parts of its proof-of-work
5/n The true nature of college is misunderstood because that which is most *legible and replicable* (curricula, professors, etc.) is actually not what is most important
6/n Those parts of college which seem senseless/inefficient from the outside (impractical areas of study, 4-year duration, emphasis on social experiences and sports, etc.) are actually integral pieces of its proof-of-work
7/n This is because college is *partly* an exercise in producing costly signals of the things that are most correlated w/ a good employee:

Reliability
Responsibility
Socialization
“Proper” upbringing & beliefs
“Successful” & responsible parents
8/n And maybe most importantly, conformity. Non-conformists are inherently risky.

Employers prioritize conformity/socialization/reliability. See @bryan_caplan’s great work:

econlib.org/archives/2012/…
@bryan_caplan 9/n So there are actually 2 credentialing gaps between college and alternative model grads that alt models have to contend w/:

Gap between relevant skills (some alt models are superior)

Gap between their conformity/socialization/reliability signal (colleges >>> alt models)
@bryan_caplan 10/n The key here is that the gap between their conformity/socialization/reliability signals is both larger and far more important for most jobs
@bryan_caplan 11/n That is why successful boot camps (which I love and believe in!) focus on data science, software engineering, etc:

The rare areas where the skills gap in the labor market is SO massive that it actually outsizes the conformity/socialization/reliability gap
@bryan_caplan 12/n But this is not the case for the majority of skills or employers

So outside of these areas, and even w/in them, alternative models are fighting an uphill battle (not at all unwinnable! Just going to take a while)
@bryan_caplan 13/n (Not to mention we are in the tightest labor market on record, so it’s perhaps never been easier to convince a company to hire an alternative model employee)
@bryan_caplan 14/n We can’t *just* build alternatives. We need to reform these institutions despite the animosity so many in SV (somewhat justifiably) have toward them.



Good alt models play an integral role in this process and many will be wildly successful
@bryan_caplan 15/n But SV seems to root for the *collapse* of higher ed

While 100% understandable, it’s also out of touch

Millions of Americans in thousands of locales would be economically devastated if this happened. Particularly in the Midwest which is already struggling
@bryan_caplan 16/n There are also strategic reasons for reforming existing institutions: the viable proof-of-work and network effects that colleges have are very difficult to create

Fixing existing institutions that already possess these “credential assets” avoids this challenge
@bryan_caplan 17/n Rather than try to create a costly, entrenched, and network-effect-supported signal from scratch…

… help a particular (and large) subset of institutions whose business models are failing

The ones who are finally incentivized to play a different game altogether
@bryan_caplan 18/n Accrediting agencies have prevented innovation for ages.

Because in an unprecedented bull market like the one we have had in education, *that is actually the optimal strategy* for all institutions involved. So no opportunities ever arose for disruption *from the inside*
@bryan_caplan 19/n But a shift has occurred.

We have finally hit an event horizon that makes defection to a radically new model a superior strategy for a very large part of the market

The playing field of higher ed is about to go through a tectonic shift and there is no going back…
@bryan_caplan 20/n Because playing the traditional game IS going to lead to a disastrous outcome for a HUGE number of institutions.

cnbc.com/2018/08/30/hbs…

It is adapt or die. So institutions are finally open to adapting.
@bryan_caplan 21/n And because accreditors *are dependent on these colleges*, they are amenable to this mission-critical shift for the 1st time

As soon as a critical mass of colleges starts playing a new game, the rest of this segment will have no choice but to switch tactics as well
@bryan_caplan 22/n That’s why I think the time is *finally* right for massive innovation w/in our existing institutions. We are about to see a huge shakeup here.

(I hope to publish additional higher ed threads that get into more detail in the coming months. Would love any and all feedback!)
@bryan_caplan h/t to @david_perell for help in formulating these ideas!
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