Thread by @iAmLikelyWrong

1/n The secret of higher education: colleges are actually HIGHLY effective at their true purpose(s)

This is why I am skeptical that alternatives to college are *solely* what will fix our higher ed system (although they certainly help!)

THREAD:

2/n What is the main differentiator between colleges and alternative models (boot camps, MOOCs, etc.), besides colleges being partly a consumption good?

A truly unique and hard-to-replicate credential.

https://twitter.com/mmay3r/status/1161876303353528320

3/n Colleges provide a credential that signals what most employers *actually* want: a high-dependability and (usually) sociable function executor.

At most companies, employees are largely risk mitigation strategies. “You are buying dependability”:

medium.com/incerto/how-to…

4/n This is part of why college is effective *for employers* as a labor curator & hard to recreate

You have to create a better proof-of-work, not just better curricula or teachers

Many of the supposed inefficiencies of colleges are actually important parts of its proof-of-work

5/n The true nature of college is misunderstood because that which is most *legible and replicable* (curricula, professors, etc.) is actually not what is most important

6/n Those parts of college which seem senseless/inefficient from the outside (impractical areas of study, 4-year duration, emphasis on social experiences and sports, etc.) are actually integral pieces of its proof-of-work

7/n This is because college is *partly* an exercise in producing costly signals of the things that are most correlated w/ a good employee:

Reliability
Responsibility
Socialization
“Proper” upbringing & beliefs
“Successful” & responsible parents

8/n And maybe most importantly, conformity. Non-conformists are inherently risky.

Employers prioritize conformity/socialization/reliability. See @bryan_caplan’s great work:

econlib.org/archives/2012/…

@bryan_caplan 9/n So there are actually 2 credentialing gaps between college and alternative model grads that alt models have to contend w/:

Gap between relevant skills (some alt models are superior)

Gap between their conformity/socialization/reliability signal (colleges >>> alt models)

@bryan_caplan 10/n The key here is that the gap between their conformity/socialization/reliability signals is both larger and far more important for most jobs

@bryan_caplan 11/n That is why successful boot camps (which I love and believe in!) focus on data science, software engineering, etc:

The rare areas where the skills gap in the labor market is SO massive that it actually outsizes the conformity/socialization/reliability gap

@bryan_caplan 12/n But this is not the case for the majority of skills or employers

So outside of these areas, and even w/in them, alternative models are fighting an uphill battle (not at all unwinnable! Just going to take a while)

@bryan_caplan 13/n (Not to mention we are in the tightest labor market on record, so it’s perhaps never been easier to convince a company to hire an alternative model employee)

@bryan_caplan 14/n We can’t *just* build alternatives. We need to reform these institutions despite the animosity so many in SV (somewhat justifiably) have toward them.

https://twitter.com/epsilontheory/status/1123281772123492353

Good alt models play an integral role in this process and many will be wildly successful

@bryan_caplan 15/n But SV seems to root for the *collapse* of higher ed

While 100% understandable, it’s also out of touch

Millions of Americans in thousands of locales would be economically devastated if this happened. Particularly in the Midwest which is already struggling

@bryan_caplan 16/n There are also strategic reasons for reforming existing institutions: the viable proof-of-work and network effects that colleges have are very difficult to create

Fixing existing institutions that already possess these “credential assets” avoids this challenge

@bryan_caplan 17/n Rather than try to create a costly, entrenched, and network-effect-supported signal from scratch…

… help a particular (and large) subset of institutions whose business models are failing

The ones who are finally incentivized to play a different game altogether

@bryan_caplan 18/n Accrediting agencies have prevented innovation for ages.

Because in an unprecedented bull market like the one we have had in education, *that is actually the optimal strategy* for all institutions involved. So no opportunities ever arose for disruption *from the inside*

@bryan_caplan 19/n But a shift has occurred.

We have finally hit an event horizon that makes defection to a radically new model a superior strategy for a very large part of the market

The playing field of higher ed is about to go through a tectonic shift and there is no going back…

@bryan_caplan 20/n Because playing the traditional game IS going to lead to a disastrous outcome for a HUGE number of institutions.

cnbc.com/2018/08/30/hbs…

It is adapt or die. So institutions are finally open to adapting.

@bryan_caplan 21/n And because accreditors *are dependent on these colleges*, they are amenable to this mission-critical shift for the 1st time

As soon as a critical mass of colleges starts playing a new game, the rest of this segment will have no choice but to switch tactics as well

@bryan_caplan 22/n That’s why I think the time is *finally* right for massive innovation w/in our existing institutions. We are about to see a huge shakeup here.

(I hope to publish additional higher ed threads that get into more detail in the coming months. Would love any and all feedback!)

@bryan_caplan h/t to @david_perell for help in formulating these ideas!