Thread by @BBCkatyaadler

Sense in EU of confusion, concern plus a deep distrust in Johnson government. Diplomat from country traditionally close to EU that has a lot to lose from no deal #Brexit tells me: "We can see Boris Johnson is playing a game but we don’t understand the rules or the strategy.” /1

EU focus now is dramatically different from beginning of Brexit negotiations when Brussels' plan was undoubtedly to get UK to agree to the most advantageous deal possible seen from the EU perspective BUT /2

With no deal now considered the most likely scenario by EU, the bloc is in self-preservation, damage-limitation mode, with EU leaders wondering how they ..and the EU as a whole .. can emerge from the Brexit drama as unscathed as possible /3

Political leaders - like Merkel or Rutte in NL - very keen indeed that a deal be found. Aware of economic impact of no deal for them at home plus they envisage likely acrimonious EU-UK relationship emerging post no deal that they fear will serve Putin and Trump most of all BUT/4

EU leader keen-ness to find a #Brexit compromise should not be confused as willingness to do whatever it takes to get a deal with UK. EU single market concerns are paramount when looking at alternatives to backstop. Merkel certainly not looking for deal "at any price" /5

PM's EU envoy David Frost is back in Brussels this Weds, possibly Friday too but his visits regarded by EU so far as "optics" aimed at domestic UK audience, rather than negotiating substance. Johnson gov has yet to put realistic alternative to backstop on the table /6

Officially EU position is 1) it awaits UK proposals because 2) the backstop as stands is the only credible solution that fits the UK red lines as set out by Theresa May and recognises unique situation on island of Ireland BUT privately some key EU players thinking... /7

"Did we miss something?" "Were we too focussed on encouraging UK to a closer position with us post #Brexit ?" "Is there a workable alternative to backstop that protects all-Ireland economy and EU single market enough?" /8

One possibility being considered (though viewed by many in EU as leaving too many exploitable holes) is sector-by-sector deal for Irish border conundrum: eg one for vetinary checks, for steel goods etc. Similar to what EU has (and swore never to replicate) with Switzerland. /9

Most simple solution for EU and the PM (in EU's opinion!):A return to original Northern Ireland-only backstop (could be dressed-up as st else if Johnson wants to make it more palatable in UK). Maybe works if Johnson holds election before UK leaves EU + no longer relies on DUP/10

EU musings that pm could hold a NI referendum on Northern-Ireland only backstop in knowledge that NI polls suggest majority there very much in favour /11

BUT bottom line is that EU will only make compromises on backstop - if painful ones for EU - if bloc is convinced that a majority in parliament is guaranteed to approve the revised deal. Right now EU leaders see Johnson doesnt have the numbers /12

Johnson's weakness in parliament impedes deal-making far more than a "Rebel Alliance" threatening to stop no deal on 31 October or EU being or not being fully-convinced of Johnson threat of no deal (NB they ARE convinced and that has made them more willing to engage) /13

I notice that - as so many other times in #Brexit process - both sides misunderstand one another: Johnson&co think no deal threat will make EU cave (but Brussels won't unless a compromise is in their wider interest) and some in EU still think if they refuse to engage.. /14

Then Johnson will buckle just before 31 October, when faced with political, economic cost of no deal. In fact: unlikely he would. Whatever happens, bets are on that EU leaders scheduled summit mid Oct will NOT be final word. Emergency EU summit (or 2) expected later October /15