Thread by @hausfath

The climate skeptics at @HeartlandInst have been promoting this graph from the state-of-the-art US Climate Reference Network (CRN), claiming it shows no warming for 14 years. Ironically, their graph shows literally the exact opposite thing they are claiming. A quick thread: 1/5

Monthly data for 2% of the Earth's surface is going to be pretty noisy, and thats exactly what we see here. One way to filter out some of the noise is to look at annual averages. Here the warming in the record is pretty clear (though its still rather noisy): 2/5

We can also see how the CRN data compares to the network of weather stations NOAA uses for estimating past temperatures. It turns out to both be quite consistent with the long term warming trend -and- actually shows slightly more warming than the weather station network: 3/5

Finally, we can calculate the trends over the full Jan 2005 to present CRN period:

Trends (C per decade)
Global - 0.26
ClimDiv (US weather stations) - 0.19
US CRN - 0.31

4/5

So, to conclude, the pristine CRN data that @HeartlandInst claims shows no warming for 14 years not only show warming, it shows more warming than the global average and 60% more warming than the "adjusted" weather station network they so love to criticize. 5/5

@HeartlandInst To clarify a tad, I'm not claiming trends in CRN data are statistically significant. Few 14-year periods in the US record are, given short-term variability. Rather, I'm pointing out that a trend of 0.3C (+/- 0.4C) per decade is by no means evidence of "no warming for 14 years".