Thread by @pmdfoster

THIS is an interesting, important - and dangerous - report by @tconnellyRTE
citing sources saying EU will allow a 'gradual' approach to Irish border in event of #Brexit no deal. Raises more questions than it answers 1/Thread.

rte.ie/news/2019/0906…

@tconnellyRTE This is the key section - it describes an kind of border limbo/halfworld where there are 'no derogations' and yet blind eyes turned if things are too politically perilous.

But how does this work in the real world? /2

This is an attempt to finesse an issue that @MichelBarnier and @LeoVaradkar have been dancing around for two years now - how can EU committment to peace be reconciled with demands to protect intergrity on EU single market. Where does the line lie? /3

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar This - which feels like it's briefed by Irish sources, tho Tony doesn't specify and I don't know - appears to want the 'cake-n-eat it' approach which is going to be deeply problematic for EU member states and risks undermining Ireland's own positions. /4

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar Because if the EU is willing to turn a blind eye, then why don't we do a deal on the Irish border now? What have we all been arguing about these last three years? And if it turns out in a 'no deal' that Ireland/Commission has been lying about binary nature of border? Mmm. /5

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar Of course, this briefing could be intended to reassure Irish readers that a 'no deal' border won't be so bad and that the EU will give Dublin a soft ride...but they can read the press in Europe too. And that raises big Qs about Ireland's commitment to single market /6

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar Becauase @simoncoveney cant say Ireland will do what is necessary to defend position in single market on Wednesday and have Europe reading on Saturday that its all fungible. It's a bad look. /7

bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney It is also, fwiw, not my understanding of where Ireland and @LeoVaradkar are on this issue. A few months back they were dabbling with idea of checks with EU26, but seemed to acept message from Commission & member states that it was fairly binary proposition. /8

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney viz. Either Ireland has status apart, OR it has place in Single Market.

If not, and Alternative Arrangements can make border function, then why not go for it now? /9

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney I did a long thread on this here...noting @MichelBarnier moment of candour to the Luxembourg times on reality of checks /10

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1110600167391154179

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney Because, the reality is that border IS binary. Either they are credible or they are not. Either they inspire trust, or they do not. And given @BorisJohnson
position on hard exit, the border needs to do a lot /11

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @hayward_katy makes this point well in her brilliant piece on Alternative Arrangements and why they need to work - and why exemptions and blind eyes in the end kill borders, encourage smugglers in a vicious negative cycle that erodes consumer confidence/11
ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @hayward_katy As I wrote in June, member states have put Ireland under clear pressure to say how a border will operate in reality in a no deal - since EU interest require the protection of the single market one way or the other. /12

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @hayward_katy And if Ireland doesn't want 'yellow pack' (cheapo) single market membership it will HAVE to make hard choices. And member states, like Poland for example, who put up border at accession, will have limited patience on this point. And Dublin knows it. /13

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @hayward_katy The ultimate point is this. Dublin has argued (right I think) that the all-Ireland economy is a lynchpin of peace & stability - even if SM integrity can have some fluidity - this concept does not. /14

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @hayward_katy Because once there is arbitrage/cracks in system, how long before the paramilitaries start to exploit them - before we embark on the slippery slope back to turfwars, snitches, guns and men lying on the side of the road with broken knees. /15

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @hayward_katy These are very difficult issues, but suffice to say that if EU member states accept no deal fallout on basis that Ireland has agreed to defend Single Market etc - and find out it could have been prevented all along, that will be very difficult for Ireland. /16

@MichelBarnier @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @hayward_katy And if this is an attempt to test the waters, then - from what I hear - I think Dublin may find itself under pressure to give more concrete answers (which I had understood were being discreetly drawn up in the Commission.

tldr #Brexit has a nasty habit of being binary. /17ENDS