Thread by @pmdfoster

Can No 10's new approach to Northern Irish backstop break the #Brexit impasse? Tldr; it's a tall order - politically and technically.

Been doing a lot of asking about..here's what I discovered. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

To start with, let's be clear what No 10 is/isn't talking about.

They are ruling out an "NI-only" backstop which leaves Northern Irealand in EU's customs area and single market for the areas necessary to deliver a fully open border. /2

This is the NI-only backstop @MichelBarnier has in his bottom draw.

It was proposed in early 2018 and rejected by UK because it turned NI into a regulatory exclave of the EU.

No.10 and DUP say it remains unacceptable. BUT..../3

@MichelBarnier The UK is now considering, with DUP blessing apparently, that Northern Ireland should follow EU rules on plant and animal product regs ("SPS" in the jargon) in the hope that that forms launch pad for an agreement that fixes the border. Question. Can it? /4

@MichelBarnier To answer that question, you need to go back to what EU and Ireland says the deal must achieve, by whatever means:

1) a fully open Irish border
2) preservation of all-Ireland economy
3) north-south co-operation under Good friday

These, it says, are the bedrock of peace /5

@MichelBarnier Why? Because once you start creating two competing regulatory trade environments you create a differential that can be arbirtraged, that encourages crime, causes cost and friction to those on border, requires policing...in short destabilising spiral. /6

@MichelBarnier Given the above, does a UK offer to align on SPS rules do the trick? Does it create an open borer and all-Ireland economy?

The short answer is it does not.

These only account for about 30 per cent of checks at a border.

And UK offer is miles short on the rest. /7

@MichelBarnier The most gaping hole is on customs.

Per No 10 briefing the UK will NOT allow Northern Ireland to remain in the customs territory of the EU.

Instead it believe this issue can be sorted by technology and exemptions? But this will NOT fly with the EU. Why? /8

@MichelBarnier Well. The border starts with customs...which is knowing what is coming in to a territory, and where...that's how you know what to check, what tarriff to collect, what to enforce. See this @hayward_katy diagram below. /9

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy The three components are clearly interlinked - so if NI outside EU customs area, how do you create an 'invisible' border, if you don't know what is coming in to NI (as part of UK?).

Online declarations etc facilitate customs, don't remove need for a border. Not anywhere. /10

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy This also in an area where criminal interests are vested in leverageing abritrage and the local community is vocally opposed to a border. There is no consent for the border (which is why the Irish want to avoid one!). /11

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy The point is I can't find ANYONE who thinks that the border issue is solved by SPS only. The customs component is unavoidable... (leave aside VAT and all the other stuff buried in the annexes to the Irish Protocol) /12

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy So while an NI-only backstop (the Barnier one from his bottom drawer) is available - and @BorisJohnson could claim a victory if the EU re-opened the Withdrawal Agreemetn to insert it, perhaps with some extra provisions on local consent - the UK 'hybrid' is not. /13

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson The UK 'idea', seems to be that both sides agree on SPS, common travel area and electricity market and the 'need' to avoid a border - but leave the tricky stuff (customs, VAT etc) up to the future relationship discussion. In short "trust us". /14

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson In short, the UK position hasn't (yet) moved very far from the August 19 letter of @BorisJohnson that stunned me off my sun lounger this summer. But might it?

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1163544394282209280?lang=en

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson There are warm words around Europe and even in Dublin for the current "step in the right direction", encouraged by @BorisJohnson sincerity in private that he wants a deal...the hope is that Mr Johnson might, as his options dwindle ahead of Oct 17 #EUCO take many more steps! /15

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson Thinking goes that if Mr Johnson doesn't want to ask for an extension, and wants to deliver an Oct 31 #Brexit he might, in the end, accept an NI-only backstop (the full piggy, perhaps slightly slimmed because its not all-UK) with some lipstick on it. /16

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson There is a cold logic to this, but it ignores a host of looming UK poltical issues that the EU sometimes doesn't understand.

The DUP will never sign up to it and - who knows - Mr Johnson ight yet need the DUP after an election. /17

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson Next, scotland. Remember @NicolaSturgeon after the NI-only backstop emerged in Dec 2017: tldr "Oi! Where's my soft brexit?" 18

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/937675437764960257

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson @NicolaSturgeon And if the idea of cutting the DUP loose (as some suggest) is to deliver a hard, buccaneers #Brexit, with minimal Canada-Dry FTA, that will make NI's 'best of both worlds' Brexit even starker. And Scottish demands for the same, even angrier, I'd hazard. /19

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson @NicolaSturgeon Then there is the UK/Westminster end. Could Johnson sell such an NI-only deal, that consigns GB to a hard Brexit? Would enough Labour rebels agree to put that deal over the line? Tricky - and remember, without a majority for a deal, the EU won't move. /20

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson @NicolaSturgeon Given that the Benn legislation is on the statute book, would the Labour MPs for a deal really accept deal that:

- delivered Brexit for Johnson on Oct 31

- consigned GB to the same hard Brexit they have always resisted.

I defer to @bbclaurak @SamCoatesSky et al on this/21

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson @NicolaSturgeon @bbclaurak @SamCoatesSky But to me, from this range, it seems like a pretty heavy lift, if the alternative is forcing Johnson to break his pledge on extending Article 50, while standing up for the rights of workers etc who risk being hit by a hard exit. /22

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson @NicolaSturgeon @bbclaurak @SamCoatesSky All of which means both sides - whatever the mood music you hear - are a very long way apart on the substance. Politically and technically.

Which leaves the EU side wondering if Johnson is really just dangling SPS offer to say 'look, I moved, they didn't' its all EU fault /23

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson @NicolaSturgeon @bbclaurak @SamCoatesSky The EU, for its part, wonders if UK can accept NI-only as a 'backstop'...while making a big play of progress on SPS etc, so that Johnson can argue a deal is close and we can move into phase 2/FTA talks (but to be clear, backstop must still be there). /24

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson @NicolaSturgeon @bbclaurak @SamCoatesSky That's why @LeoVaradkar was so clear about the need for "legally binding" solutions. The EU and Ireland aren't going to take this on a 'trust us' basis.

The UK sometimes behaves like its a member state that needs a friendly 'fix' to a headache...that's a mistake. /25

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson @NicolaSturgeon @bbclaurak @SamCoatesSky @LeoVaradkar That was subtext of Merkel remark today. Yes we want "friendly relations" BUT the UK is an "economic competitor" on our doorstep. And it will be treated as such. /26

@MichelBarnier @hayward_katy @BorisJohnson @NicolaSturgeon @bbclaurak @SamCoatesSky @LeoVaradkar In summary, both side seek momentum. Warm words, but in #Brexit the answers, to date, have always lain in the substance not the spin. Maybe this time, under pressure, it will be different. I'm not betting on it. 27/ENDS