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About to take a well-deserved holiday. Few final #Brexit thoughts before I do. Perception across EU is that @DavidGHFrost came to Bxl as a spokesperson for @BorisJohnson, not a negotiator. As has been reported, when pushed, no new ideas were tabled as alternatives to backstop
This said, it's clear to EU officials that biggest shift in Govt's approach (besides ramp up of no deal track) is fact it is no longer seeking "frictionless trade." It no longer subscribes to commitments made by @theresa_may in Dec 2017 JR - neither substance, nor "philosophy"
(ie that there needs to be a legally binding operational solution to Irish border in WA). New Govt sees this as a mistake, although many in Whitehall remain of view that TM’s attempt to square Brexit with a soft border was both responsible & a credible attempt
The problem, of course, is that May's commitment to this in her letter to @eucopresident in March 2018 was precondition on EU side to move onto discussions on future relationship. That can't now be retroactively unwound
So although one could argue this Govt's approach to Brexit is more coherent (not cake-seeking; is clearly prioritising trade sovereignty with 3rd countries at expense of trade with other EU MS) it's come very late in day. & it brings HMG up hard against the prob of Irish border
With backstop rejected by @10DowningStreet, NI-only backstop is EU's other obvious solution. But this has also been rejected by Govt for now (I say now, as I think it remains a possibility for Boris after an election, depending on outcome & his political constraints at that time)
Put differently, while it's absolutely clear that most of those advising BJ would be comfortable with a much harder UK/EU border (& would, frankly, throw NI under the bus to get it), I am not absolutely sure about Boris himself, nor, for that matter, some of his key ministers
The *key* strategic question being pondered in Whitehall is EU fix to Irish border in event of no deal. Senior British officials talk of "grace periods, dials & on/off-ramps." I don't see any flexibility. Integrity of SM is paramount for @EU_Commission as guardian of treaties
So very hard to see how there won't be checks/controls from Day 1 - only question is where & how. As I wrote at time, at both April & March #EUCO, Merkel & @EmmanuelMacron *insisted* that @LeoVaradkar & TF50 be ready for worst-case scenario/no deal. Suspect they will be
Senior EU officials note that EU trade partners can ban EU imports if they're not convinced EU is properly applying reg controls. They believe they have a responsibility to EU's trade partners & EU consumers. Another describes SM as EU's "Crown Jewels" that can't be compromised
This, of course, is current Govt's gamble - that whatever is implemented on day 1 of no deal will ultimately supplant backstop. OR, that "work on contingencies to see what would happen in event of no deal will frame incentives to do a deal today" as one senior UK official puts it
So don't see how backstop - a de facto CU - survives no deal, when there's a Govt in place seeking a Canada-style FTA with EU & gung-ho about trade with ROW. Financial settlement & citizens rights guarantees will remain. Other tough pre-conditions would likely enter the mix too
Is there a deal to be done at last minute, in heat of October EUCO? Sensible UK officials still close to Brexit believe so, on basis of existing WA "amending text & adding a few paragraphs." Time-limits & long transition. But EU officials much, much more sceptical - on 2 fronts
1) On UK politics. As one senior EU official says "Boris knows that anything he puts on the table won't pass the Commons. He doesn't want to become Theresa May. 2) On EU flexibility. "We've been here 2 times - March & April - & didn't blink then. What's changed?
"Apart from fact we're now more ready". So UK & EU have horns locked, & are staring each other down. As I said yesterday, this could travel into & beyond G7 in Biarritz. . For Berlin, Paris & Bxl, key question is what Commons does. Otherwise no deal looms
Our Brexit % heading into Sept are: 45% early election (basecase); no-deal (30%); amended deal (10%); referendum (10%); “other” scenarios (5%). & despite all the very interesting back & forth on here on Parly's options per below, still think 1 is for now most likely Commons move 
