,
15 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
So, Phil Hogan, the new Trade Commissioner, spoke to me shortly after the announcement of the new Commission and made some interesting observations about the state of play in the Brexit negotiations
1/ Referring to the NI-only backstop which now seems to be in vogue, if that's the right word, he said Boris Johnson had shifted to accepting some kind of differential between NI and GB, eg accepting SPS checks at seaports on GB-NI consignments
2/ Hogan says: "I think there’s movement happening on both sides. Let’s see over the next four weeks how we can advance those intensive negotiations to reach an agreement."
3/ What could that movement be? Hogan said there were "constitutional issues" already in the WA that "might have to be improved upon. If this is a request that’s made, of course we can look at it."
4/ He didn't go into detail but the preamble to the Irish Protocol spells out that the WA does not affect NI's consitutional place within the UK. This is in fact echoed by the UK AG who said in Dec 2018 "the Protocol and the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union...
5/...do not affect the principle of consent, or any other provision of the 1998 Agreement, in any way." So, Hogan is perhaps hinting that the Preamble could be strengthened to make that constitutional reassurance stronger.
6/ Downing Street and the DUP have both rejected the revival of the NI-only backstop, but this could be a case of no-one wanting to be first to break ranks
7/ But if it were revived, there are some suggestions that the Northern Ireland assembly could be given a stronger oversight role.
8/ However, neither Dublin nor Brussels would accept an oversight role tantamount to a veto. Member states have already been told by the Commission that this would take away the legal certainty the backstop is intended to provide
9/ Hogan also mentioned the north-south dimension in under the GFA. If there was further oversight of the backstop that could be utilised. "I’m sure we can look at it," he said
10/ Hogan repeated that the WA could not be reopened in a "major way" but that the political declaration could, as we have heard countless times, be looked at again.
11/ "The EU has said..very strongly... that the WA that has been agreed remains as it is," [unless "you want to go back to the NI-only backstop which gives security to the island of ireland, gives the protection of the GFA, gives frictionless trade and no hard border...
12/ "and equally it would give Mr Johnson... an independent trade opportunity to do trade deals around the world."
13/ These are very prelimanary suggestions and, as one EU diplomat suggested, the various elements now being discussed are like a "soup" mainly because Number 10 is not yet thinking in a linear way
14/ And of course, again, Number 10 and the DUP have flatly rejected a return to the NI-only backstop. So this of course could be a false dawn, but then again...
