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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
The Yellowhammer has landed:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
5 pages - seems to be the Sunday times document - dated as I repeatedly pointed out “August 2nd” bit on refineries I think redacted
seems to be showing that No Deal in October worse than March. dated clearly “Aug 2nd” - Govt argue it has changed this outlook since then...but “reasonable worst case scenarios” not pretty on food, medicines, electricity, trade, UK Nationals, NI, fishing enforcement, social care
1. Trade flow rates:
Thursday worse than Friday, half term a problem.these assumptions on trade flow are really bad - half of lorries not getting through, waits of 1.5 to 2.5 days, but actually an improvement on the catastrophic flow rates assumed 6 months ago...
4: THE Border Delivery Group (BDG) FCO, home office and transport warns of disruption on Eurostar and on UK arrivals at EU airports and ports due to increased immigration checks:
5: no Day 1 No Deal disruption to electricity supply in Northern Ireland... but after a rapid Single electricity Market split - “significant electricity price increases for consumers with associated wider economic and political impacts” said BEIS
6. Medicines: unmitigated flow rate of 4 in 10 lorries will have “an impact on the supplie of medicines and medical supplies”. Actually industry told me impact even if its 8 in 10. Ferry contracts not signed yet, but shd be. Can’t stockpile for 6 months nor for vet medicines
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Unanimous judgement - it is justiciable.
Supreme Court overrules High Court on justiciability... “what are the limits to that [prorogation] power?”
PM’s Advice to Queen unlawful, Prorogation unlawful, prorogation void, no effect, unanimous decision of the Supreme Court.
Read 9 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Labour average 32 hour working week announcement “not a French style cap” - Labour source.
This I think is the measure Labour says it is trying to get down to 32 hours a week - average actual weekly hours of full time workers - 37 hours now - it’s come down one hour in 27 years
The 37.1 hours figure (which is the one they thin they can get to 32) includes holiday leave and sick leave - strip those out and you get the internationally comparable Eurostat figure of 42 hours a week - and these are the Skidelsky charts on that vs rest of Europe and over time
Read 5 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
This leaked Line to Take document shared with certain MEPs (BSG - Brexit Steering Group) and EU27 diplomats (Council Working Party) seems to dash notion of any real progress

UK “concepts” “would have to be developed during transition period” not “legally operational” solutions
FYI - it’s real.

“UK team further added they would have to establish a regulatory and customs border on the island of Ireland as a consequence”, is the Commissions message to EU27 diplomats and MEPs.
“Such concepts fall short of satisfying all the objectives of backstop...
- avoiding a hard border... preserving the integrity of single Market”... remember that the warm noises in the sky interview with Juncker, came before he said he had fully read the three “non-papers”
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Prof Tanja Bueltmann
@cliodiaspora
So here we are.
#Yellowhammer.
Read it.
Talkt to your family, friends, colleagues and neighbours about it.
This is from August.
From this Govt.
Don't let this Govt destroy our lives.
❓My main question is: what is redacted #Point15?

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Something about Northern Ireland?
Something about increased mortality/loss of life due to no-deal, e.g. to do with cancer treatment?
Something about imposing martial law?
Something about job losses?
.................................................................. 2/
Also: this on EU citizens is rubbish. We already know that the Govt would be using no-deal to strip us of more rights and undoubtedly there would be new problems and discrimination. I also expect a rise in hate crimes as previously indicated by police reports. 3/
Read 5 tweets
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Peter Jukes
@peterjukes
BREAKING: #YellowHammer documents released on UK government's worst case planning assumptions for No Deal as of 2 August. Thread follows
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70%... In a reasonable worst case scenario, HGVs ·could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border.
Dependent on the plans EU Member States put in place to cope with these in.creased immigration checks it is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports and ports.
Read 21 tweets
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Anti-Brexit Alien
@LennieMerrick1
We need to talk about leaflets. THREAD.

The Brexitons make much capital out of the famous “Remain propaganda leaflet”, the document compiled by David Cameron’s Conservatoids to present the government’s view on the referendum, and sent to every UK household, at a cost of £9m. /1
(We post the link for your reference below. If you can find any actual “propaganda” in it, and not simple, sober statements of fact and perfectly reasonable assumptions, do shout.) /2
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Seriously, there is not one point in there that has not been borne out by events since. Anyway. Our present point is that few people ever talk about the *other* leaflets.

This was the main mailshot of Vote Leave, the main designated campaign. /3
Read 15 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
The Swiss-UK trade agreement has now been presented to the British parliament and is published here

H/T @BBCChrisMorris

gov.uk/government/pub…
The text is also available in English and German on the Swiss government website. For now, the French and Italian versions of these pages link to the German version (language links are top right of the pages)

English: seco.admin.ch/seco/en/home/A…

German: seco.admin.ch/seco/de/home/A…
These paragraphs in the UK explanatory memo sum up the situation.

Note it “will take effect when the EU-Switzerland agreements cease to apply to the UK.”

With the Withdrawal Agreement: end of the Implementation Period.

Without: on 29 March 2019

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Screenshot of paragraphs 4 and 5 from Screenshot of the next 3 paragraphs down to
Read 6 tweets
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ClareBDimyon MBE (L-GBT) the 1st!
@BDimyon
#Gender #Identity (FCO since 2009) Mathematical Analysis of @MoJGovUK stats 30 June 2018 wrt sexual offences (99.1% #Male) #Male-pattern Sexual Offending shared by #Transwomen, 60 is just under half of 128 #female from total population of 30M in #England & #Wales. @munkihanger
#Gender #Identity:
#Tavistock *Gender Identity* Clinic
#BAGIS #British Assn of *Gender Identity* Specialists
#GIRES *Gender Identity* #Research & #Education #Service &
@FCOHumanRights since 2009/10-ish!
Why does this #Lesbian of the #BritishEmpire know? 🤔
@faintlyfalling 😊😊😊
#Shoutout for @mrkhtake2 for patiently explaining that #Intersex people can ONLY be i) #female with Variant Sex Characteristics from typical #female sex characteristics presentation &... ii) #male with Variant Sex Characteristics from typical #male sex characteristics. @ClareCAIS
Read 29 tweets

Trending hashtags

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