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We have six months to sort out Brexit one way or the other. The starting point is that if the aim is an orderly Brexit then the WA must be approved by the Commons. The EU will not budge on this. The Cabinet and Parliament looked at a disorderly Brexit and swerved away.1/
All the WA does is get us into the transitional stage where the big issues concerning the future relationship must be addressed. These are covered in the aspirational political declaration which is full of items which by definition are yet to be decided.2/
Only belatedly are these issues being addressed. The focus has been on staying in the customs union but there are many others relating to security cooperation, regulatory alignment, etc.3/
Government and opposition have been trying to agree on changes to PD to soften Brexit but this is not a good use of time because anything agreed will be subject to later negotiations.4/
Meanwhile those (possibly now a majority) who wish to remain in EU have been frustrated by the lack of a chance to test Brexit after the experience of the last 3 years. 5/
May will add to the strain in her party if she accepts a softer PD. Corbyn risks straining his if he pushes for a CU but ignores the case for a referendum. 6/
The PD within obvious limits (including those related to Irish border) can accommodate a range of Brexits. That is something for Leavers to focus upon. 7/
This points to Lab dropping attempts to change PD, agreeing to back WA but only subject to a confirmatory referendum. 8/
That would have the advantage of avoiding another cliff edge. When the votes are counted we either move on to the transition or we stay in the EU. /end.
