Thread by @JuliusWaller

Its been a long while since I did a thread on the EU perspective of the Brexit side. The reasons were simple, there was nothing happening and then after Johnson's election the brouhaha was mainly in the UK. 1/

As the new PM was the loudest voice claiming the UK held all the cards it was interesting to wait and see how he would play them. Amid the fracas there were also voices @CER_Grant and @BBCkatyaadler who claimed flickers of light in the negotiation were apparent. 2/

@DavidHenigUK, also generally well informed, was more cautious but it seemed nothing could be excluded. Therefore despite a healthy scepticism about progress one cannot ignore people who wander around the Brussels bubble and have such eminence. 3/

The meeting with Juncker - despite his imminent departure - seemed critical . Although there seemed no reason for suspecting movement, it is at this meeting that Johnson could make a difference. The tantalising claim of Frost engaging on substance made this plausible. 4/

So what is the feedback - I hear? Well, a big fat nothing. Nothing is happening, nothing is moving, no chance of any agreement before end October. The EU has already moved to the presumption of a 4 months extension and is acting accordingly. 5/

The perception from the EU side is that Johnson is busy electioneering and that solving anything in time for the deadline is furthest from his mind. Those fearing no-deal can also rest assured, this too will not come to pass on 31/10 in the view of my contacts. 6/

The EU is likely to undergo another few rounds of fresh abuse from the Brexit lot as they gear up their election campaign. In Brussels they are therefore battening down the hatches - the extraordinary press conference of Bettel yesterday confirms nothing is at stake. 7/

Even a leader of a small EU country wouldn't risk antagonising the counterpart if a real deal and progress was on the table. The firm conviction on the EU side is also that Johnson cannot deliver on any solution: deal, no deal, PV, revoke - nothing. 8/

This in addition to the campaigning style with which Johnson is communicating, renders it quite logical for the EU to conclude an extension will be asked. It will be granted too, Macron will do his bad cop thing and there will be some oohing and aahing but it will pass. 9/

Team Juncker will pass the baton to team Von der Leyen as await the outcome of the process in the UK.
'Plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose.'
In other words the Brexit saga continues./end