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Morning Consult has new polling out.
One of the more interesting data points is “second choice by candidate”.
Basically, supporters of Harris, Warren and Buttigieg would migrate more heavily to one of the other two were their candidate to drop out.
1/3 morningconsult.com/2020-democrati…
One of the more interesting data points is “second choice by candidate”.
Basically, supporters of Harris, Warren and Buttigieg would migrate more heavily to one of the other two were their candidate to drop out.
1/3 morningconsult.com/2020-democrati…
I have yet to see full data on second-choice prefs for every remaining candidate but we are about to enter into a consolidation phase.
A candidate will drop out. Their supporters will choose a replcement candidate from the remaining field. And repeat.
2/3
A candidate will drop out. Their supporters will choose a replcement candidate from the remaining field. And repeat.
2/3
On the one hand, some portion of those supporters will migrate to Biden and Sanders.
On the other, a disproportional share will likely migrate to candidates other than those two...
...and that will create a sensation of momentum as the trailers narrow with the leaders.
3/3
On the other, a disproportional share will likely migrate to candidates other than those two...
...and that will create a sensation of momentum as the trailers narrow with the leaders.
3/3
