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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🗿💪
@RachelBitecofer
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
New IA State/Civiqs Poll of Likely IA Caucus attenders shows Warren leading Biden, 24% to 16% (MOE +-5.2, N=572). This is the 1st in what will be a panel tracking poll of the same pool of respondents. Very exciting data to have!! civiqs.com/documents/Civi…
Couple of things stand out about Likely attendees: gender gap here may be statistical insignificant. MOEs on crosstabs are generally double to study's MOEs (so +-10pts). Still we see a suggestion that young people are fairly tuned in (age gap is lower than normal). Still, the
progressives look to have the edge among the most likely attendees (Sanders & Warren). Also Mayor Pete who is right up there with them. Biden trails this group w just 60% of his supporters saying they will "definitely" caucus.
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🗿💪
@RachelBitecofer
Today is Constitution Day & many of my peers have chosen to focus on celebrating the document's many strengths. However, I'm going to focus on two glaring weaknesses. 1. the document provides no direction on what to do when a newly elected POTUS has been compromised by a hostile
foreign power. As such, when confronted w this scenario, we had no choice not only to read this individual into all of our nation's most closely held state secrets, but also to allow the individual to assume the presidency, and, according to legal analysis anyway, legal immunity.
2nd: the impeachment powers written into the Constitution, ostensibly to offset the POTUS legal immunity issue, were designed based on what apparently was a flawed assumption. That assumption was that in the face of clear illegal behavior, Congress would be compelled to act.
Read 8 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🗿💪
@RachelBitecofer
According to @Catalist user @PatBayerNC when compared to the 2014 midterm, the more appropriate baseline, Catalist study by @yghitza shows turnout accounts for majority of Dem vote gain in 2018. In response to @Redistrict's tweets on the "debate" yesterday:
I'll add, and this has been affirmed in convos w study author @yghitza: vote switching here is pure Indies that voted for Trump in '16 swinging to Ds in '18. @Redistrict is right that these voters are imp to getting Ds to 40 seats-which is why their "swing" is part of my theory
As Pat points out, no one is arguing that swing voters don't matter. The new theory is arguing they are a necessary, BUT NOT SUFFICIENT, electoral strategy and MY theory specifically argues you can swing this group by activating turnout among latent Indies. I will show this
Read 6 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🗿💪
@RachelBitecofer
Last night on @TheLastWord @Lawrence I explained why Ds fell short in the NC-9 special despite a pretty big Trump Bump that overall bodes well for Dem prospects in more competitive races. We didn't have long for the topic so here are more details.
Lean into being a Democrat. Turnout will be in the 30s, 40s, or 50s, NOT 80s. What will be determinate is the ultimate partisan breakdown of a low turnout electorate.

You need a big turnout surge of Dem voters & left leaning Indies, and for THAT, you need salience & inspiration.
By minimizing being a Democrat, you are running from a position of weakness. You are running the same campaign as your opponents: "don't vote for me, there's something inherently flawed about me and my party's governing philosophy." Beyond your most committed voters, voters need
Read 8 tweets

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Hansi Lo Wang
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NEW: No state redistricting officials asked @uscensusbureau to include citizenship data with #2020Census data for redrawing voting districts, but bureau still plans to release block-level citizenship data in 2021 by same deadline for redistricting data👇
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Christopher Williams
@cjw_phd
Public opinion polling has very serious consequences on the reality of governance and policy. A thread about the UK and the US. 1/n
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
Elizabeth Warren's first law review article blasted an anti-busing court ruling - CNNPolitics cnn.com/2019/07/06/pol…
Fascinating details from @ewarren. In 1975 she held the opposite view from #Biden. While he was arguing for a constitutional amendment to stop busing, she supported busing, critiquing those who would stop it, as she wrote in a law review article. (Harris was in grade school.)
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
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#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
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This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
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Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
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#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
🗣️‼️Americans think well before voting, the world is tired of US wars‼️

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