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To stay below 1.5°C of global warming, global CO₂ emissions need to decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030.
If OECD went to net-zero by 2030, non-OECD would have to reduce 25% by 2030.
What does this mean for raising ambition?
1/
#UNClimateSummit cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/cicer…
If OECD went to net-zero by 2030, non-OECD would have to reduce 25% by 2030.
What does this mean for raising ambition?
1/
#UNClimateSummit cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/cicer…
2. China emits 28% of global fossil CO₂ emissions, but growth has slowed substantially since the growth spurt in the 2000's.
China's pledge will unlikely lead to declining emissions by 2030, & far from a 45% reduction by 2030.
10-yr trend is still increasing emissions...
China's pledge will unlikely lead to declining emissions by 2030, & far from a 45% reduction by 2030.
10-yr trend is still increasing emissions...
3. US emissions have declined since 2007, making its 2025 pledge of a 26-28% reduction (in GHGs of 2005 levels) a possibility.
Markets have caused a shift form coal to gas, solar, & wind, but stronger policies could bring the US to a 45% reduction in 2030.
Net-zero by 2030?
Markets have caused a shift form coal to gas, solar, & wind, but stronger policies could bring the US to a 45% reduction in 2030.
Net-zero by 2030?
4. The EU has had steady emissions for decades, but a meaningful decline only from 2007 (like the US). The EU is on track to easily meet its 2030 target (40% below 1990), & could easily reach 45%.
The EU is considering net-zero in 2050, but is it possible for 2030?
The EU is considering net-zero in 2050, but is it possible for 2030?
5. India is often called a climate leader as studies suggest its emissions growth is compatible with 2°C. Its emission pledge is in line with current exponential growth in emissions, despite growth in solar & wind.
Hard to see India reducing emissions in 2030, hard to see 1.5°C?
Hard to see India reducing emissions in 2030, hard to see 1.5°C?
6. The problem is that global rules, used by eg IPCC, mask the challenges for countries.
Even if developed countries go zero by 2030, the burden on developing countries is unprecedented. This is particularly acute for 1.5°C...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
Even if developed countries go zero by 2030, the burden on developing countries is unprecedented. This is particularly acute for 1.5°C...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
7. The only way to get around these fairness constraints is with large-scale CO₂ removal...
While negative emissions are often critiqued on equity grounds, negative emissions are what allows equity to be achieved!
cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
While negative emissions are often critiqued on equity grounds, negative emissions are what allows equity to be achieved!
cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
8. As Rob Socolow apparently said: “What's fair is no longer safe. And what's safe is no longer fair”
These issues need much more discussion & debate, otherwise we will be back here in 10 years wondering why emissions kept rising...
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These issues need much more discussion & debate, otherwise we will be back here in 10 years wondering why emissions kept rising...
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