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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
This is a list Bernie Sanders' standing in all early- state polls since the Houston debate

IA: 9% (David Binder Research)
IA: 11% (Selzer)
NH: 12% (Monmouth)
NV: 14% (Suffolk)
IA: 16% (Civiqs)
This is a fairly craptastic series of polls in three states that ought to be relatively strong for Sanders. In 2016, he won 50% of the vote in Iowa, 47% in Nevada, 60% in New Hampshire.
Sanders will probably get some better polls later (I'm surprised this set has been *so* bad). But for all the complaints about the media not treating Sanders as a frontrunner, polling in the low/mid teens in early states that ought to be strong for you is not frontrunner stuff.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Don't get what Biden's doing here. Maybe there's an very thin limb where you can support an impeachment inquiry but not necessarily removal from office. But you probably shouldn't be on that limb when the basis of impeachment is POTUS ginning up a scandal about you & your son!
And Harris! "Let's wait for the evidence" is at least a little more on-brand for an ex-prosecutor. But the Dems' position should probably be that there's *already* enough evidence for impeachment/removal based on Trump's remarks & the WH call transcript.
Warren's team must be doing cartwheels. Nothing about Harris's strategy has made sense since her good 1st debate. Biden's strategy over Ukraine hasn't been good. Bernie IMO has had the wrong strategy from the start (i.e. doubling down on his ~15% base vs expanding his coalition).
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Pelosi's instincts on impeachment are looking very solid so far.
Who knows. Could it be going even better for Dems if Pelosi had called for impeachment over Russia a few months ago and *then* the Ukraine stuff landed? Maybe. I tend to think that would have dulled the impact of Ukraine. But who knows. It's hard to prove anything.
What we do know is that the first 2 weeks have gone well for Dems on almost every front: D party unity is high, public opinion has swing in their favor, Trump's defenses are feeble and (most importantly) the fact pattern has been very unfavorable for the White House.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
FWIW, here's what we estimate NBA replacement level to be based on the performance of players on two-way contacts. About -2.75 points per 100 possessions, of which -1.85 comes on offense and -0.90 on defense, although the offense/defense split varies by position.
We don't buy that there should be different replacement levels across different positions. Instead, stats should be designed such that the league average at each position is roughly equal. Many advanced stats are biased toward big men, especially traditional post-up bigs.
We do find that PGs are generally more valuable than shooting guards, for the same reason that shortstops are generally more valuable than second basemen. The best PGs can generally do all the things that SGs can do, plus run the offense and generate additional value that way.
Read 3 tweets

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Greg C (Bernie 2020)
@greg06897
1) Here’s a thread that will show how full of crap the media and even people like @ryangrim are when it comes to their poll analysis. (Hint: you have to look at the change in polling over time by the same pollster)
@ryangrim 2) what I quote tweeted above was a concern troll take by Grim that was really just designed to elevate Warren and smear Bernie. I know Grim crapped the bed in 2016 and was one of the most overly confident people that Hillary was a lock, but I’m confident he still knows better
@ryangrim 3) As far as polls go, assuming they don’t suddenly pull weird tricks with their weighting, pollsters tend to have a bias or for lack of better word, a weight, that just comes from them doing the poll. A few pollsters are really low on Bernie and have been for many, many months
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
Long, thoughtful, fascinating exploration of #Bernie's history. This narrative makes Bernie immensely more accessible and even likeable. His long financial origin story is quintessentially American in its working-class to riches trajectory.
1/
politi.co/2wdvbhY
I've written about #Sanders over the years and like most leftists, thought his politics were an essential prod to others in Congress. But there are details of his political history here that #Bernie should be pushing instead of hiding: like that he was a Harvard fellow.
2/
#Sanders is often presented as s spendthrift, but what propelled #Bernie from 3-term mayor of tiny Burlington into the House was his fiscal responsibility. He literally was deemed the Republican Trotskyite while mayor for reeling in spending and building the city's coffers.
3/
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Dog Hand
@MNitzberg
Hey just a quick public service announcement.

Making the 2020 comversation about the online behavior of a candidates supporters mostly serves to move the conversation about bigger issues like policy and fitness for office.

#BERNIE THREAD /1
At the risk of sounding condescending I feel like there are 4 things we should ask in this primary.

1. What are your policies ?

2. Are you proposing them in good faith?

3. Will you be effective in implimenting them?

4. are you fit for office?

This needs unpacking...

.../2
So the hardest questions are 2-4.

Whether a politician is seen as operating in good faith is often tied to whether we think a politician is "authentic."

This shit is huuuuuuugely sexist and priveledges men over women.

/3
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
I have a few things to say about this piece that just dropped...

Why the #Bernie Movement Must Crush #BetoORourke
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
The insistence by white male writers that there is a two-white-man race out there between Bernie & Beto is so deeply, stunningly misogynist, it takes my breath away.

How is it POSSIBLE that these folks missed the blue wave which was fundamentally female--driven by women voters?
Not just driven by women voters, but driven by women candidates. Left-leaning women candidates, including WOC who ousted long-time older white male incumbents like....Bernie Sanders.

How is anyone missing this fact?
It's a major reason why Sanders' numbers have plummeted.
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Joseph Stalin
@StalinIsBack
1/8 My favorite #quote by #JosephStalin, which explains the scientific, #DialecticalMaterialist explanation of true freedom in material reality, not just as an abstract ideal. #StalinIsBack #StalinLives #JVStalin #Stalin #StalinQuote #StalinQuotes #Truth #MELS #MarxismLeninism
2/8 Having an #objective, #rational, #ScientificSocialist, #Dialectical, & #Materialist viewpoint allows us to accurately see & evaluate & analyze #Truth & #Reality as they truly materially exist in this universe.
3/8 An idealistic, dogmatic viewpoint, which capitalists have, however, makes one irrational enough to 'see' freedom where freedom stays trapped on a piece of paper while people are oppressed in their actual lived lives.
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☂️skyfish☂️
@skyfishgoo
allow me to explain:

first thing to realize is that compromise usually involved splitting the difference (e.g. arbitration -- if you've ever been privy, you know exactly what i mean).

next you need to understate that starting positions matter
now we come to the republicans..

they know to start out WAY to the right of anything sane

democrats, being slightly more reasonable tend to open with somthing they thing will win the other side over to their POV.

... it ... will ... not ....

so this happens.
after a few years of this (say since 1980) you end up with both parties being FAR to the right of anything that a rational person would consider CENTER

enter #bernie sanders and his populist, moderate policy positions like #medicareforall or raising the minimum wage
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