Thread by @greg06897

1) Here’s a thread that will show how full of crap the media and even people like @ryangrim are when it comes to their poll analysis. (Hint: you have to look at the change in polling over time by the same pollster)

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1178816221644505089

@ryangrim 2) what I quote tweeted above was a concern troll take by Grim that was really just designed to elevate Warren and smear Bernie. I know Grim crapped the bed in 2016 and was one of the most overly confident people that Hillary was a lock, but I’m confident he still knows better

@ryangrim 3) As far as polls go, assuming they don’t suddenly pull weird tricks with their weighting, pollsters tend to have a bias or for lack of better word, a weight, that just comes from them doing the poll. A few pollsters are really low on Bernie and have been for many, many months

@ryangrim 4) As I mentioned elsewhere the pollsters that consistently have Bernie doing worse than average are NBC, Quinnipiac, Suffolk, and with one weird exception where they had him and Warren beating Biden, Monmouth

@ryangrim 5) Meanwhile, YouGov tends to have Warren abnormally high, though their numbers for Bernie are only slightly down

@ryangrim 6) one of the many flaws with Real Clear, aside from them not posting certain pollsters including the last 2 Reuters polls, and consistently using the wrong numbers for YouGov, is that they have no set timetable for their average. Sometimes polls are 3 weeks old, sometimes

@ryangrim 7) they get rid of every poll that’s more than 5 days old, and worst of all, on a few occasions they’ve removed one poll but kept another despite both being done at the exact same time period and being the latest version of each

@ryangrim 8) in fact they did this 3 days ago when they kept NBC for an extra day after removing SurveyUSA.

It’s nit just national either, there are certain pollsters that have Bernie doing 17 points worse than other pollsters in Iowa alone. And it often tends to be the same pollsters

9) who have him doing worse nationally too, as Monmouth and Suffolk are usually pretty bad either way. CNN didn’t quite make it when it came to being low in Bernie nationally, but they are continually really down on Bernie in state polls outside of a new one in Nevada

10) In fact, the early state polls are as if they are polling totally separate states depending on the pollster. Bernie has a spread of 15 just in the last month in Nevada, a spread of 15 in the last month in Iowa, 17 if you count the bogus Binder poll, a spread of 16 in NH.

11) So if you want a narrative that Bernie is falling in the early states, you just have to wait for one of the pollsters who are really low on Bernie to come out. Instead one should be comparing each pollster to their previous poll

12) it’s easier to see the outliers nationally because there’s so many more polls which make it easy to see which ones stand out so Let’s do that then

13) Here are the change in polling for Bernie in current polls vs where he was in previous versions of the same poll:

Morning Consult: Bernie at 19, was at 18 and before that 20. (I did 2 because it’s a weekly poll)

Harvard Harris: Bernie is at 16, was previously at 16

14)
Emerson: Bernie at 22, was at 24
Hill Harris X: Bernie at 16, was 15
Fox News: Bernie at 18, was at 10, before that at 20
YouGov: Bernie at 16, was at 15
CNN: Bernie at 17, was at 15
Reuters: Bernie at 15, was at 13, before that at 16

15) Now let’s look at the negative pollsters for Bernie.

Quinnipiac: Bernie at 16, was at 15, and before that 14
NBC: Bernie at 14, was at 13
Monmouth: Bernie at 20, was 14 (hasn’t been recent one)
Suffolk: Bernie at 12, was at 15 tho that was months ago

16)
Oh I forgot two regular ones.

ABC: Bernie at 19, was at 19 or 18 (WaPo did a weird 2 poll thing one time)

Survey USA: Bernie at 17 was at 20 (They’ve only done 2 polls all year)

17) So let’s see where all the slipping is.
In order to how I posted them above:

+1,
0
-2
+1
+8
+1
+2
+2
+1
+1
+6 ( no recent one on this one tho)
-3
+1 or 0
-3

18) So by my count, out of 14 different pollsters, Bernie has gone down in 3 of them.

But please keep saying how he’s slipping in all the polls, when he’s actually gaining, and it’s just that Quinnipiac and NBC have both recently released polls

19) one last thing, (for know at least), the fact that the media is lying about the polls doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter. If they can keep telling people bernie’s is falling, people will start to believe it and it might decrease voter turnout for him and get undecided voters to

20) vote for someone else thinking they have to choose between Biden and Warren. That’s why it’s crucial that we fight back against the lies. The Media wouldn’t lie about Bernie and the polls nonstop if they weren’t worried that he can actually win