,
21 tweets,
4 min read
Read on Twitter
There are universes in which the GOP can be convinced to convict and remove Trump and there are universes in which they can be convinced to convict and remove Pence and ones in which they'll do it to both of them, but none in which they'll make Pelosi president by doing so.
Just, please. Dream big but don't lose sight of reality. The Republican Party that was willing to glom onto Trump in order to get and hold onto power will not, if it's necessary to get rid of him, do so in a way that directly elevates a Democrat to the presidency. Her especially.
"But they can't help it, it's the line of succession, they won't have a choice."
They'll have a lot of choices. Order of operation and timing. Line of succession doesn't run through people, it runs through offices.
They'll have a lot of choices. Order of operation and timing. Line of succession doesn't run through people, it runs through offices.
If Trump sees that sacrificing Pence will have a chance of saving himself, Pence won't be VP when Trump goes down. If Trump goes down, Pence won't go down in the same fell swoop. Even if that were possible, the GOP has no reason to do it.
So even if Pence is clearly headed for a conviction in the Senate -- and I really should emphasize, that's still an if and a substantial one -- after Trump, the rest of the GOP will do the obvious play: pick his vice president for him, then let him resign.
Pence plays ball in this scenario because the hand-picked new vice president (and now president) will pardon him, following the precedent of Ford and Nixon.
I'm not predicting it will happen this way. I think it's more likely that impeachment never comes for Pence. I'm saying, this outcome is more likely than one in which Pelosi becomes president through impeachment.
It wouldn't even be much of a perversion of the intention of the law. The reason for the line of succession going past the vice presidency is attack/disaster, not legal troubles. For the GOP to maintain the presidency through this would not be great, but not (for once) cheating.
Back in 2017 when certain right-wing grifters turned resistance oracles were saying that Trump's impeachment was in the bag (or had already happened, remember?) they were anointing Orin Hatch president, because Paul Ryan was also implicated.
This is more of the same flavor of pie in the sky dreaming. If Trump and Pence are both taken down, and that is a big, big, big if especially given the time scale before the election, the GOP will pick the next president.
I don't predict the future, but character is destiny and the character of the GOP is to hold onto power at all costs. Here they can do it legally in a way that few constitutional scholars or civics experts would quibble with, and the alternative is to elevate their hated enemy?
Yeah. I know how dangerous President Pence would be... but he's already in the White House, already directing policies and impacting laws. And if Trump goes and he stays, at this point in time? Disaster for the GOP.
Honestly, if anything happens to force Trump off the ticket before next November, whether it's misadventure or medical issues or impeachment or resignation, *anything*, it's going to make it hard for them to win. His base will feel betrayed and let down.
People salivating at the thought of President Pelosi both aren't dreaming realistically and aren't dreaming big enough. We aren't going to knock the GOP all the way out of the White House a year early or even a month early.
But if Trump is out? November becomes a rout.
But if Trump is out? November becomes a rout.
Bingo. It is more of that.
You absolutely can. The vice president resigns, the president appoints a replacement, the senate confirms him. Look up Spiro Agnew.
Replacing a vice president is how we got Gerald Ford as president following Nixon.
Replacing a vice president is how we got Gerald Ford as president following Nixon.
If Pence resigns -- voluntarily or at the direction of Trump -- or if he's removed by impeachment and conviction, Trump is entitled to appoint a replacement. The role isn't meant to sit empty.
That's why I mean the further line of succession is for disasters and attacks.
That's why I mean the further line of succession is for disasters and attacks.
The first, last, and almost only job of the vice president is to be the spare president in case of emergencies. It's not "Oops, we lost the vice president. Now the speaker is next in line, LOL." If you lose a vice president, you get a new one.
..................well, okay, now, there is a wrinkle, isn't there? Hoo. That I could see. Sacrifice Pence and then leave the office vacant so the GOP doesn't dare convict him.
It's a low-percentage scenario, as it requires two unlikely events together.
It's a low-percentage scenario, as it requires two unlikely events together.
Those events together being that the GOP is willing to convict Trump and that Pence goes before him.
Which, I mean, in a final analysis, this all depends on us imagining the Senate is willing to convict and remove Trump in the first place.
That's not impossible, but not likely.
That's not impossible, but not likely.
