First, a few words about impeachment, then a bit about what to expect in the next few months.
Then Q and A.
I suspect things will move quickly: The House will vote on Articles of Impeachment by the end of the year, maybe by Thanksgiving . . .
A Senate trial isn't a criminal trial. It is analogous but not the same.
An impeachable offense doesn’t have to be a crime— meaning that it doesn’t have to violate a specific crime in the Federal Code, thus . . .
Prior to the Whistleblowers complaint, most Americans disproved of Trump, but wanted to remove him in November, 2020.
This is different from Russia 2016 because Trump is now president AND got caught red-handed.
OR the GOP splits: Trump supporters remain loyal, others defect, so deeply fracturing the GOP that they hobble into 2020 elections and lose big. (Really big)
I can’t answer all the questions. I wish I could.
I’ve already written several impeachment threads. They’re on my blog categorized under “impeachment” (Clever way to organize?)
It may be that trying to prove each crime would be a distraction, and would take way too long.
Right now there is public outrage, and Trump is having trouble getting control of the narrative.
There is public outrage over the Whistleblower report, which might encompass almost all else.
What if Trump and Russia teamed up against Ukraine to sway the U.S. 2020 election?
Better to strike while the iron is hot instead of letting Trump regain control of the narrative.
Republicans in Congress are starting to defect already. See reporting about Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei.
It seems to be CYA time. How about that explosive report yesterday . . .
💠Americans had no idea Trump said this to the Russians
💠It's being leaked now.
Also, Volker just resigned.
Why did he resign? Good question.
I think this will all unravel quickly.
Lots of commentators tell us that most of the GOP falls in line because they're scared of Trump.
It's easy to follow the leaders out of line.
Remember: Removing Trump but leaving the GOP intact will not solve the underlying problem that gave us Trump in the first place.
The goal is to save democracy. . .
This is a good question.
No president has ever been removed from office using this means. The Constitution doesn't tell us much, just that removal requires 2/3 of the Senate.
Let's just figure that if 2/3 of the Senate vote to remove, it will be because a majority of Americans--including many in red states--want him gone.
More likely is that a vote in the Senate is split.
I don't see why not⤵️
He is still president.
I assume, though, that self-dealing and corrupt pardons . . .
My background is criminal defense. I annoy people when I say I'm less interested in who goes to prison.
What matters is what happens to the GOP and democracy.
They don't need, and shouldn't try to get all the evidence. The process will take too long . . .
If there is overwhelming evidence and Trump hiding stuff, what will people think?
What people think is key. This is not a regular court . . .
Instead they gave it to Congress.
The didn't want it to be a purely legal process decided by judges with lifetime appointments. For one thing. . .
It also transforms a legal process into a hybrid legal-political process.
The way the power to impeach and remove was allocated in the Constitution tells us that the framers . . .
The president isn't a criminal defendant who can cross his arms over his chest, remain silent, and say, "Prove it."
If he hides evidence he looks guilty in the Court of Public Opinion.
As far as subpoenas, with whistleblower(s) and CYA, they should get enough.
If the GOP decides to shield Trump, it could be a circus. If a Senators defect, it could get very interesting.
There's a wild rumor Fox is considering dumping Trump. We'll see, right?
And if Articles of Impeachment comes swiftly, the vulnerable red-state Dems avoid having to explain in Oct. 2020 why they spent their tenure going after Trump instead of working to better the lives of constituents. . .
Let's talk about numbers ⤵️.
We don't need to persuade everyone. We'll never persuade everyone.
Landslide presidential elections are about . . .
FDR 1936: 60% -36
LBJ 1964: 61% -38
The Reagan 1980 landslide was about 50% - 41%.
With numbers like that, 2020 will be a blue sweep.
2018, Democrats won by 8 percentage points. There is no reason not to repeat that.
With a blue sweep in 2020 . . .
40% of Americans can love and vote for Trump and we can still have a wipe-out 2020 landslide.
If impeachment-removal is successful, it will bring us that.
I may pick this up again.
If you asked a good question and I didn't answer it, I am so sorry!!
There is no need to prove each element beyond a reasonable doubt in a Senate hearing. Standard criminal procedure does not apply.
That's why earlier I said don't fall into the Quid Pro Quo /"NO COLLUSION" trap.
The GOP circles the wagons, the Senate trial turns out to be a circus, the voting is entirely on partisan lines, and Trump remains in office and empowered . . .
The Whistleblower Complaint lessens the odds of a bad outcome because it's easy to grasp and clear ⤵️
The Whistleblower moved the focus from . . .
That's why it doesn't matter whether the elements of bribery of extortion were met.
This is bigger.
Takeaway: Pelosi tasked the Intel Committee to take the lead on the impeachment.
Maybe I'll do another soon.
Here's this thread as a blog post: terikanefield-blog.com/impeachment-up…
Thanks for the questions.
You'll all ace the Constitutional Law and Impeachment portions of the Twitter Bar Exam😉