,
11 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
There are still plenty of people arguing that Boris Johnson is currently behaving from a position of strength.
This is not right.
He is behaving like a cornered animal because he is in a position of weakness.
This is not right.
He is behaving like a cornered animal because he is in a position of weakness.
His problem relates to the General Election DATE
Johnson wanted a General Election 15 Oct, so he could go to European Council 17 Oct, put a metaphorical gun to their head, and state "either my Deal, or we're out without a Deal" - NOW RULED OUT
Johnson wanted a General Election 15 Oct, so he could go to European Council 17 Oct, put a metaphorical gun to their head, and state "either my Deal, or we're out without a Deal" - NOW RULED OUT
Next best was an election 31 Oct - to at least give the Tories a chance of getting some Brexit agreed before the exit day, so they can keep Johnson's "do or die pledge" - NOW RULED OUT (not enough time to organise an election any time before 5 November)
So having pushed so hard for these two General Election variants, the Tories have to keep on sounding like they want a General Election - at least for a while longer
But do they *actually* want it in November or December?
But do they *actually* want it in November or December?
Beforehand one of three things would have to happen:
EITHER Johnson u-turns and requests Art 50 Extension
OR Johnson resigns
OR Johnson breaks the law and ends up in Court
OR perhaps there is a fourth option, that Johnson tricks his way to No Deal by 31 Oct
EITHER Johnson u-turns and requests Art 50 Extension
OR Johnson resigns
OR Johnson breaks the law and ends up in Court
OR perhaps there is a fourth option, that Johnson tricks his way to No Deal by 31 Oct
If Johnson - at a November election - went full on No Deal, the Lib Dems win suburban London and the SNP win his Scottish Seats.
If he goes for a Deal, Farage roars back and prevents the Tories winning midlands and northern English seats he needs.
If he goes for a Deal, Farage roars back and prevents the Tories winning midlands and northern English seats he needs.
However all of that still leads to a tactical quandary for opposition parties over the next fortnight
Extend or resign are both 🎁 for the opposition - they show Johnson in a bad light
Extend or resign are both 🎁 for the opposition - they show Johnson in a bad light
Breaking the law leads to a full on crisis - but would then be followed by a Vote of No Confidence that Johnson would lose, and there'd be just enough time to find an alternative before 31 Oct
That Johnson somehow tricks his way to No Deal is the dangerous one
That Johnson somehow tricks his way to No Deal is the dangerous one
Also even if Johnson were to aim to crash out of the EU, he is not going to do this during an election campaign - because queues of trucks and medicine shortages are not going to help his chances 10 days before a poll!
jonworth.eu/the-uk-might-c…
jonworth.eu/the-uk-might-c…
So ultimately I think this thread by d'Ancona is wrong:
Either ALL opposition parties need to unite NOW and no confidence Johnson, to definitively prevent him tricking his way to No Deal.
OR if that's not considered a danger, wait and let Johnson fail.
Either ALL opposition parties need to unite NOW and no confidence Johnson, to definitively prevent him tricking his way to No Deal.
OR if that's not considered a danger, wait and let Johnson fail.
Johnson does not really want a November election, and - at least the cooler heads in the Tory Party will realise - most definitely will not want one within a couple of weeks of No Deal. Because in those circumstances the Tories will not win.
/ends
/ends
