Thread by @jonworth

A little thread about #GeneralElection (GE) dates

There is still the assumption that a GE is inevitable sooner rather than later in the UK

But when you look into the detail it's more complex than just ASAP is best

First the technicalities: Parliament is dissolved 25 working days before a General Election
parliament.uk/about/how/elec…

All my calculations are based on that - they are minimum time frames

The additional 14 days foreseen in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act are NOT included

I also assume the law will NOT be changed for this General Election. 25 days is already pretty tight to get everything done (not least overseas ballots), so I think it is fair to work with these deadlines.

So were the election to be called *today* 30 September, the earliest the election can happen is:

🚨 Tuesday 5 November 🚨

If the election were called on the eve of the European Council (that starts 17 Oct, so Commons could call it 16 Oct so as to show EU an election would happen, that gives you:

🚨 Thursday 21 November 🚨

Call the election on the first sitting day after the European Council - 21 Oct - and you get:

🚨 Tuesday 26 November 🚨

If it were to take a week to clear up everything post-European Council, and post Article 50 Extension and 28 Oct was when the election were called you get...

🚨 Tuesday 3 December 🚨

🎄🎅 is approaching! 🎄🎅

Think of all of this for the parties in terms of campaigning and turnout - campaigning in wet and dark November is going to be no-one's idea of fun.

The population is jaundiced about Brexit and politics as it is.

How this would play out in electoral terms is hard to assess.

Labour has more activists on the ground, so bad weather and darkness impacts them perhaps most. The Tories with more money for an advert-based and online campaign perhaps fare best.

However Remain voters are more politically motivated than Leave voters, so a generally lower turnout election could be a benefit for the Lib Dems and, to a lesser extent Labour.

Meanwhile all of this ought to focus minds EU side.

If the UK does, as the Benn Act requires, ask for a 3 month Brexit extension at the 17 October European Council, but the election has not been called, that leaves the timetable pretty tight...

Very late November election, only clear what the Government will do sometime in early December, an effort to try to (re-)negotiate something by Christmas, and then get it all approved in the House of Commons in January?

This all looks a rather long shot

"Do not waste this time" said Tusk when the extension to 31 October was granted

We already know 31 October will not be enough if the Benn Act is respected and/or a General Election is called (presuming the UK does not crash out mid-campaign)

I understand the Lib Dem and Labour position that a General Election should only be called after the Article 50 Extension has been secured

But we're reaching the stage that the 3 months the UK will demand might not be enough...

Thread prompted by a tweet by @NvOndarza. Will be relevant to @Paul0Evans1. Might also be handy for people EU side like @FabianZuleeg who wonder what the implications of UK decisions will be on the EU side of all of this

/ends