Thread by @pmdfoster

EXC: Full readout of @BorisJohnson #Brexit deal that was briefed to EU capitals today - it's extraordinary - tl;dr "Two borders, for four years."

Story here:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

Full gut, section by section, here:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

1/Thread

@BorisJohnson First, the broad offer:

- Northern Ireland remains aligned for agri/industrial goods, dynamically, for four years

- But remains in UK customs territory, so customs checks N-S border in Ireland. /2

So that creates TWO borders.

- one east-west between GB and NI, which will require declarations for goods moving to NI after 2021

- and one N-S for customs etc. along lines @tconnellyRTE leaked last night /3

@tconnellyRTE - BUT the UK will seek an immediate and blanket exemption from Union Customs code in next 10 days.

- NO longer looking to punt customs Q into future relationship, but wants in-principle UK agreement in Withdrawal Agreement. /4

@tconnellyRTE The UK will not ask for an extenstion to transition period.

GB will leave with FTA by 2021, leaving NI in this time-limited arrangement. /5

@tconnellyRTE The UK wants NI OUTSIDE the EU's VAT regime - which is a massive lacuna for EU Commission which considers VAT major fraud risk/need for checks controls.

AND UK wants NO level-playing field alignment, while remaining permanently in Single Electricity Market /6

@tconnellyRTE After four years, NI parties get a 'say' on whether to a) continue alignment with EU single market regs OR b) align with GB/UK 'mainland'

Do you get that? In practice that means DUP 'veto', since way Stormont works, they can always effectively block decision to stay aligned/7

@tconnellyRTE But there is no mirror/equvialent mechanism to go the other way - ie for NI to choose to join EU CU to avoid the hardening border that would result form decision for NI to 'rejoin' UK.

I cannot see this causing anythign other than anger in NI context. /8

@tconnellyRTE Lots more detail in the stories...but given EU red lines

- fully open border
- preserving north-south co-op
- integrity of single market

...how can this POSSIBLY be squared with UK request? /9

@tconnellyRTE Understand Dominic Cummings told meeting of top advisers last Friday that UK "won't be hanging around to negotiate" - “If they reject our offer, that’s it.” /10

@tconnellyRTE What is the UK's nominal gambit here?

See tactical analysis here, but the idea is to box in Ireland - as @PatLeahyIT
recently reported, UK dips running round saying @LeoVaradkar
will cave /11

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

@tconnellyRTE @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar The aim, I think, is to present a choice:

EITHER - no deal now, and customs border immediately

OR - accept a deal, get £££, citizens rights etc and orderly transition to this 'tech' border

The hope is Merkel and co will squeeze Ireland /12

@tconnellyRTE @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar But that totally misses

a) @LeoVaradkar preference to have a no deal, if he must, to give leverage to solution he wants (rather than acquiescing in a border)

b) Merkel's attachment to EU unity and intergity of SM /13

@tconnellyRTE @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar In summary?

I cannot for the life of me see how this flies; or could ever be intended to fly.

Be interesting to see public EU reaction. 14/ENDS