Thread by @pmdfoster

Right. The UK discussion document is out - but this, I'm afraid, is a pretty wild mischaracterisation of what it means in practice for Northern Ireland business.

Text of paper here. Some key points to follow: 1/thread

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1179398582820114439

As I reported y'day, NI remains in regulatory alignment with EU for goods/agriculture BUT remains outside the EU customs union.

So, as the document frankly admits, that means a customs border between North and South.

Now what does that mean? The document vague, but also not/2

So it concedes as "small number of phsyical checks" at traders premises and "other points of the supply chain" - totally woolly, but there is a clue to what is meant.... /3

And it's in here in 17a with the reference to the "transit mechanism"...the rules for which are set out in the 1987 Common Transit Convention... which means (see threads passim) check in/check out either side of border. That's infrastructure... /4

So @tconnellyRTE thread on 'customs clearance' areas was correct in substance...the clue is in 17b "other designated locations"...

So No.10 is playing a game of semantic bullshit here... /5

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1178760377678618626?s=20

@tconnellyRTE But what does it mean in practice, since @BorisJohnson said this is just a little fight over some technical wizzardary...except that it is clearly not.

This customs plan requires, in essence, every good in NI to be tracked. /6

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson That means a Van, per CTC 1987, leaving 'office of departure' on one side of border and arriving at 'office of arrival' on other side, with goods "under control" of customs en route?

How well, GPS/Tracking etc. Millions of journeys. Terabytes of data. Realtime movements /7

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson Dear Twitter. What might be the legal basis for this kind of data gathering?

Do we think Ireland is going to agree to it?

Do we think that the small business (the bulk) are going pay for it? Play along with it? /8

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson So I asked some NI industry groups what they make of it.

@MichaelAodhan said these checks will be "costly and intrusive" and make "NI goods less competitive"

And IF UK diverges on tarrifs..it means tariffs too. /9

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @MichaelAodhan Stephen Kelly @ManufacturingNI even more whithering... for businesses nearer the border...huge impediment in the way of their trade which will mean that they cannot compete and customers the other side of the Border will cut them them their supply chain. /9

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @MichaelAodhan @ManufacturingNI Kelly concludes: "Frankly the proposals are worse than No Deal for Northern Ireland businesses." /10

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @MichaelAodhan @ManufacturingNI The point is that the EU can say:

- 'tick' on regs (agri/industrial goods)
- tick on UK accepting that NI can't be used as trojan horse for GB-EU
- tick on governance mechanism
- tick, even on reduced Level Playing Field if it's NI-only

That's all fine....BUT... /11

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @MichaelAodhan @ManufacturingNI This proposal, as explained above, leads to a imposition/change in Northern Ireland that - it seems very clear to me - @LeoVaradkar will not, cannot accept.

It's not just about abstruse "technology"...it's about cars and cows and livelihoods. /12

As one NI source put it: "If it wouldn't be acceptable in Kent or Surrey, then it should not be acceptable in Fermanagh or Armagh." /13

Couple of other things buried in there - one of which I missed in my report of this morning.

The first one is this request from UK that EU agrees "never" to conduct checks at border in the future. /14

This is extraordinary.

Is the UK saying to EU "agree no checks" and we'll work it out later in the transition period?

It sounds like it - I recall the letter of Aug 19 that stunned me off my sun lounger /15

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1163544394282209280?s=20

I mean, think about it - that's basically just 'trust us'.

Would you, say, commission a new building on that basis? Or rent a car or a flat?

Coz that's whats being said her - unless the UK intends to re-write Union Customs Code in 10 days! /16

Whatever your Brexit persuasion, you have to admit that's a pretty ballsy ask - to put it as politely as I can find the words.

Then that last thing, that was missing from my report. /17

It seems the DUP @duponline are on board with this, since they get to agree to the regulatory alignment in advance.

I had noted the four year 'opt in' after that first phase, but now it seems the DUP also get an 'opt in' at end of transition.

Mmm.. /18

@duponline So that's not just 'Trust me' from @BorisJohnson on the customs piece, but also 'trust Arlene' on the entire NI arrangement.

Do we think that's gonna fly? Really? I find hard, on past pronouncements to think so. /19

@duponline @BorisJohnson So that's your lot

In summary: feels like a long shot to me. It's not about semantics or politics. It's about real people, real places. Guessing is not good enough.

20/ENDS

PS...did I mention sections on GB-NI border inspections worth a read?