Thread by @pmdfoster

So as David Frost @DavidGHFrost goes to see @MichelBarnier team in Brussels to probe the #Brexit deal - what are the key areas of contention, and what might the fixes be? Been asking around

1/thread

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier First, we don't have the 40+ pages of legal text, so can only work off this 7-page summary and @BorisJohnson letter to @JunckerEU the docs are here, both short and worth reading. /2

gov.uk/government/pub…

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU To briefly recap, the deal proposes leaving Northern Ireland (NI) in the single market for all goods...but outside EU customs union.

That means two borders: light touch customs border North-South and a full regulatory border East-West between Great Britain and NI. /3

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU So. The over-arching British argument is that this effectively quarantines the 'risk' to EU single market posed by Northern Ireland.... (Recall EU always baning on about risk to SM)...given that, as Johnson reimnds Juncker N-S trade is less than 1% total EU-UK trade. /4

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU Indeed, the Commission has already admitted back when it was building original NI-only backstop that IF the backstop ONLY applied to NI, then the level-playing field requiremenst (to follow EU rules on enviro, workers etc) would NOT need to apply so onerously/5

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU So why - the British argue - should the same flexibility apply to customs, VAT etc?

As Johnson says, isn't this just an argument over some technical fixes?

Absolutely NOT in the view of the EU. Here's why, as I understand it. /6

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU The first BIG issue is here, in 'e' of the preamble.

The EU must agree, upfront, by October 17, to "never" to have checks on Northern Ireland border.

That's a permanent treaty committment... /7

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU And yet the UK wants the EU to sign away that right whilst providing ZERO detail about how the customs VAT and border checks are going to work.

All that is to be worked out in transition (14 months) which even proponents of tech solutions say is not long enough/8

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU So the UK asks for a HUGE exemption from the EU's existing Union Custom Code with not clarity about what replaces is. Would anyone - a business or a bank for example - sign a contract on that basis? Is that a serious suggestions?

Which brings us to the next prob. /9

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU The UK also can't even guarantee that it's 'two borders' solution will come into effect...because AFTER the EU signs this contract noted above, the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive can simply reject it.

So what happens then at the Irish border? /10

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU Which takes us back to the risk issue for the EU.

As noted above, IF the UK seals the risk from NI by erecting a full regulatory border between UK mainland and NI, then you could maybe start to have a chat about customs/derogations etc.

SO important how that happens... /11

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU But let's look at the UK doc... at the moment the EU customs code is cornerstone of compliance, enforcement and knowing what is crossing the border.

BUT the UK says it doesn't want to use that...it will build it's own system...which the EU must rely on. /12

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU SO. That means the EU is being asked to sign up to waiving a huge amount of its customs rules, setting precedents for other countries, on the basis that the UK properly manages this east-west border...using a system HMRC has not yet build and over which the EU has no control /13

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU My guess is that Barnier will tell Frost that this is a punt the EU is not willing to take.

Particularly when the 'future' relationship is a minimalist FTA that, per Johnson, gives UK free range to diverge from EU rules/regs...so that border wd need to work /14

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU All of which presumes that the transition period can deliver a stable outcome for UK-EU trading relations...but if there is no FTA, then we're back to tarrifs (which might also be in an FTA) with all the opportunity that creates for false declarations and smuggling /15

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU All of which would have to be handled by this super light-touch customs code.

Basically, the UK is asking for a shotgun marriage here, where the EU had offered a careful courtship which - if trust was established and systems stood up, could maybe deliver a border solution/16

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU EU sources are clear that if a "proper system" was designed then the risks to EU could be "small" - but the UK is asking for somethign that doesn't exist ANYWHERE in the world and the EU aren't prepared to do this on a wing and a prayer /17

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU And all of that only applies the 'integrity of the single market' strand of EU asks on the border.

The other political elements (north-south co-operation, fully open N-S border) also need to be addressed.

Because the border proposed doesn't fly in NI..../18

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU Have a read of this excellent report from my colleague @JamesERothwell who is in Northern Ireland all this month reporting....the DUP are pretty much the only backers of this 'plan'. /19

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1179811413826719746

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson @JunckerEU @JamesERothwell In summary Mr Frost can expect some "very tough" questions today.

The EU wants an 'orderly' exit, not a seat-o-the-pants punt on the future at a time when UK politics looks, from their side of the Channel, decidedly dicey.

The UK will need to move a long way, and fast. /20