Appreciation in EU circles this evening, of advances the PM perceived to have made on his regulatory offer since UKs informal ‘non papers’ on how to replace backstop. “I’m impressed” a key EU diplomat told me, describing himself as “lightly more optimistic” as a result BUT /1
Aside from other EU concerns with the PMs proposal, customs remains main sticking point. There EU contacts say the PM hasn’t budged his position despite EU repeatedly explaining their concerns re dangers to single market (smuggling) and to NIreland peace process /2
BUT sense in Brussels that the take it or leave it rhetoric of the PM was aimed at UK audience and that he’s willing to negotiate further in Brussels. Diplomats welcome PMs use of expression ‘broad landing zone’ however .. /3
This does not mean EU thinks a deal likely by the mid October EU leaders summit. Quite the opposite. Everyone I speak to believes it to be very unlikely. And only slightly less unlikely that a deal can be sealed by end of the month /4
Apart from it not bring clear how far the EU (Varadkar is key here) is willing to compromise +how far the PM will still move .. the very fractious +divided European Parliament has to approve deal (remember MEPs approved a motion saying deal without backstop is impossible?) AND /5
Then there’s the seething UK Parliament which also would have to approve a deal .. SO a long uncertain road ahead. Expect many, many questions from EU on legal text of the UK proposals over the coming days But ../6
Tonight at least EU goes to bed feeling less hopeless and doom and gloomy than it frankly expected to be on receiving the Johnson proposals /7
PS Brussels still thinks a new extension is the most likely next chapter in this looooooong Brexit process /8
