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Seems a lot of confusion around reactions to the UK's Brexit plan. Let's make it simple - given it has been widely rejected across the island of Ireland it can't be a deal the EU will accept. Even if not all would go as far as @fotoole in his assessment 1/ irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan…
@fotoole EU Member States are bored and frustrated with Brexit. But not enough to obviously throw Ireland under the bus. Equally the Commission is well aware of those in the UK Government who want no-deal to be the EU's fault - hence the cautious approach 2/ politico.eu/article/eu-amb…
@fotoole So the obvious EU move is to ask for more details, to probe, see whether the UK will move further to get a deal, basically to negotiate. Knowing that this is not leading to a deal in two weeks (even providing everyone with an excuse for the next extension?) 3/
@fotoole This is all classic negotiating stuff, for as @Usherwood reminded us yesterday we are talking about a complex multi-player game. One which can easily take 5-10 or more years for resolution (the deadlines have in this sense not been helpful) 4/
@fotoole @Usherwood The only question for the next two weeks is then - is either side desperate enough for a deal that they break their own red lines? It seems unlikely, negotiators are claiming they can live with no-deal. The UK Parliament then intervenes, and EU agrees an extension. 5/
@fotoole @Usherwood Beyond the next two weeks the EU still want to know if the UK side is capable of a serious negotiation - that is to say have a clear, realistic negotiating position supported by a sufficient consensus - which is complex and need finesse that we haven't yet seen 6/
@fotoole @Usherwood As I write here, the Johnson offer did at least step forward in acknowledging realities of customs and regulatory checks. Whatever the puritans of Brexit may say there probably is a deal that could be reached with the EU on these grounds, but... 7/ prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
@fotoole @Usherwood Whether there is a Brexit deal reachable with the EU and capable of obtaining majority support in this or the next Parliament remains questionable. It won't happen without a different approach to negotiations than that we've seen for 3 years 8/ end
@fotoole @Usherwood PS this thread adds really useful detail from Northern Ireland
@fotoole @Usherwood PPPS some really important detail on problems in the UK proposals from @pmdfoster - just to repeat - there is a 0% chance of the EU accepting these proposals intact
@fotoole @Usherwood @pmdfoster And beyond the political posturing this is the sort of thinking we need to resolve the Ireland and Brexit issue. There are ideas out there - but a Government too scared of Brexit hardliners to negotiate properly
