Thread by @karolcummins

Rick Perry & the sale & transportation of US LNG (liquid natural gas) to UKR

TeamTrump is likely up to mischief, which we will probably learn more about in the coming days.

Let’s first review some background information about UKR gas supplies & infrastructure.

Gazprom = RU

🔑The future of the transportation of Russian gas to Europe is wide open.

🔑The role of Ukraine, historically the main transit corridor, will change after the current transit contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukrainy expires on 31 December 2019.

oxfordenergy.org/publications/r…

5/29/19, Naftogaz CEO Andriy Kobolyev participated in a meeting between Zelensky and an official U.S. delegation headed by Energy Secretary Rick Perry.

naftogaz.com/www/3/nakweben…

🔑The parties discussed energy cooperation between Ukraine and the U.S., including gas production and retaining Ukraine’s gas transit potential.

naftogaz.com/www/3/nakweben…

🔑Meeting participants also considered the creation of a sustainable route for LNG imports to Ukraine through the regasification terminal in Poland.

naftogaz.com/www/3/nakweben…

🔑Piotr Naimski, said Poland, which has increased purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US in recent years, would be able to send six billion cubic meters of gas to Ukraine starting from 2021 compared to the current capability of 1.5 bcm.

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…

🔑Trump is aggressively pushing LNG exports around the world — and to Europe in particular — as part of his American Energy Dominance policy.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

🔑While millions of Europe’s homes, factories, and businesses run on Russian gas – Gazprom controls 37% of the continent’s market share – few countries are more reliant on Russian energy exports than Ukraine.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

🔑Despite not directly importing any Russian gas since November 2015, UKR depends on Gazprom for nearly 3% of its GDP.

🔑This is because much of Europe’s gas from Russia must transit UKR, earning the country some $2.8B in annual transit revenues. 💰

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

🔑Ukraine only produces 20 bcm of the 32 bcm it consumes, meaning that it must rely on imports to meet the final third of domestic gas demand.

🔑Most of it comes from its Central European neighbors via reverse flow pipeline.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

🔑Russia is threatening this critical financial lifeline for Ukraine through its Nord Stream 2 and Turkstream projects, which allows Gazprom to circumvent Ukraine and enter Europe directly. 

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

🔑Nordstream 2 – due to be completed by early 2020 – will pump 55 bcm of gas directly to Germany via pipelines at the bottom of the Baltic Sea.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

🔑While Turkstream– due to finish in 2021 – will send a net 15.75 bcm to Southern Europe and the Mediterranean via Turkey and the Black Sea.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

📌Once fully operational, these two Gazprom projects will nearly replace the 87 bcm of gas that flows from Russia through Ukraine, thereby drastically reducing the need for Ukrainian gas transit and crippling the country’s economy.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

This is where the United States comes in.

The U.S. is now the world’s most prolific oil & gas producer.

Texas is the epicenter of the shale boom

money.cnn.com/2018/09/12/inv…

🔑The country’s major gas companies including Cheniere, Tellurian, BP, and are quickly developing the infrastructure to liquefy and transport the commodity overseas in the form of liquified natural gas.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

🔑This year, the US became the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, averaging 4.2B cubic feet per day (42.9 bcm/yr) in the first five months of the year, and is expected to remain the third-largest LNG exporter in the world behind AU & Qatar through 2020.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

Some 40% of these exports are destined for Europe – surpassing volumes to Asia in January 2019.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

It’s true that cooling, transporting, and regassifying liquid natural gas is costly, which means that the US would be hard-pressed to undercut Gazprom in European markets.

But U.S. LNG is still valuable to gas-importers like Ukraine for three reasons.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

🔑First is basic economics. Increased supplies from the US add to global volumes of traded LNG, putting downward pressure on prices.

🔑Second, U.S. LNG offers Ukraine and other European nations ‘supply diversity’ and thus improved energy security.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

Countries that were once solely reliant on Russian gas now have increased leverage in future contract negotiations with Gazprom and other providers.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

Lithuania is a good example – it received a discount from Gazprom when it contracted a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) to supply LNG in 2014.
It has been importing American gas since 2017.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

🔑Lastly, American LNG may command a premium price, but its presence alone has the power to break Russia’s monopoly on (Eastern) European Markets.

Mogilevich & Firtash won’t be happy about this unless they get a cut, don’t you think? 🤷‍♀️

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

📌U.S. LNG contracts are more flexible than their Russian counterparts, favoring more buyer-friendly, short-term spot-market contracts over Gazprom’s preferred longer-term agreements.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

💰Increased investments in pipeline interconnectors and reverse flow pipeline technology will create a more integrated European gas grid that can maximize the utility of operational LNG facilities to benefit countries overdependent on Russia.

forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…

📌Side note: 8/16/19: Yuriy Vitrenko, ED of Naftogaz of UKR, says he expects that the process of recovering debt from Russia's gas giant Gazprom in the amount of about US$3B from the sale of seized assets will be fully completed at the end of next year
unian.info/economics/1065…

Ok, now we generally understand the TeamTrump’s eagerness to sell LNG to Ukraine & recognize the need to Increased investments in infrastructure: such as pipeline interconnectors and reverse flow pipeline technolog, etc.

Who personally benefits financially?

💰💰💰💰

The message from Perry to Zelensky was: "You've got to take steps on your anti-corruption efforts.”

📌Which is flip the script Trumpese meaning you need MORE corruption & cut us in on the deal pretty please.

politico.com/news/2019/10/0…

“Perry also called for shaking up Naftogaz to help it cut its reliance on energy supplies from Russia and open itself up for more investment from the U.S.”

📌Meaning let’s make it look like we are tough on Russia & cut our cronies in on the deal.

politico.com/news/2019/10/0…

In UKR & other E European countries, Perry often played the role of US energy pitchman.

He helped deliver a deal to export US coal to UKR, & he did a natural gas deal w/ Poland that would send supplies to UKR & help reduce its dependence on Russian fuel.

politico.com/news/2019/10/0…

🔑Perry pushed for Ukraine’s state-owned natural gas company Naftogaz to expand its board to include Americans: two long-time energy executives based in Perry’s home state of Texas

#Cronies💰💰💰

politico.com/news/2019/10/0…

Among Perry's numerous visits with Zelenksy and other Ukraine officials in the past year was a dinner with Zelensky, Jared Kushner and other officials in June.

politico.com/news/2019/10/0…

🔑Perry & Zelensky met again the following month with Polish government officials to sign the energy cooperation agreement,

politico.com/news/2019/10/0…

🔑Perry also attended the bilateral meeting with Zelenksy and Trump in New York on Sept. 25, a DOE spokesperson confirmed.

politico.com/news/2019/10/0…

The Russian Backdoor?
Mogilevich must approve

Two clients of Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, Ukrainian-American Trump donors Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, had met with Naftogaz earlier this year to pitch themselves as suppliers of U.S. natural gas.

politico.com/news/2019/10/0…

“I may or may not know anything about it,” Giuliani told POLITICO when asked if he knew about Perry’s efforts to install new people on the board.

In other words Fruity knows all about the <cough> ‘deal’.

Fruity’s henchmen Parnas & Fruman formed Global Energy Producers to sell liquefied natural gas from the U.S. to countries around the world, especially Ukraine.

Doing that requires permits and licenses that can take years to acquire. #GreaseTheWheels

npr.org/2019/09/27/765…

Parnas sought to jump-start that process by making big political contributions, including a $325,000 donation to a pro-Trump political action committee called America First Action.

#GreaseTheWheels

npr.org/2019/09/27/765…

"I wanted to get notoriety for my energy company and I felt it might be a great way to play with the big boys," says Parnas.

Parnas made the contribution with a business partner, Igor Fruman...Fruity’s other little buddy.

npr.org/2019/09/27/765…

🔑The contribution was wired from an account that did not belong to Global Energy Producers, which caught the attention of the Campaign Legal Center.

npr.org/2019/09/27/765…

🔑The organization labeled the company "shady" and filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission.

📌Fischer says the FEC is still considering the complaint. WTF?

npr.org/2019/09/27/765…

Lawsuit

https://twitter.com/karolcummins/status/1176270292898861056?s=21

💦💰Ukrainian Igor Fruman and Russian-born Lev Parnas

https://twitter.com/karolcummins/status/1176264350253797376?s=21

Parnas, Fruman and their natural-gas company, Global Energy Producers, have given more than $400,000 to Republican candidates and committees supporting them in federal elections.

That money was donated to Trump, Rick Scott, Ron DeSantis, & Adam Putnam

miamiherald.com/news/politics-…

Could there be an ulterior motive to have prosecutors go after their competitor Burisma (Hunter Biden’s fmr employer).

Kill two bird with one stone, no? Hmm.

📌Ukraine’s new chief prosecutor to ‘audit’ Burisma gas company cases

washingtonpost.com/world/europe/u…

Trump throws Rick Perry under the bus

“The only reason I made the call was because Rick asked me to. Something about an LNG [liquified natural gas] plant.”

🔑Trump added that ‘more of this will be coming out in the next few days’ — referring to Perry.”

axios.com/trump-blamed-r…

What is Mogilevich & Firtash’sinterest in this deal? I am sure TeamTrump has no intention of cutting them out of the deal, after all they surely need their approval if any deal goes forward w/ any deal.

Is Parnas & Fruman’s GEP a front for the RU mob?

https://twitter.com/karolcummins/status/1142649962922070016?s=21

🌳Breathe🌳

Whatever TeamTrump is up to, we will surely learn more in the coming days.

It’s likely much worse than I can imagine & I wonder if there is Flynn/Trump Marshal plan tie in as well (Saudi Nuke deal related).

Anyway, stay frosty & buckle up!

Sleep well.

@threadreaderapp unroll please and thank you.

#Perry
#Ukraine
#LNG

‼️Moscow commentator: Kremlin believes Ukraine is about to surrender

📌Is this the Quid Pro Quo @realDonaldTrump made & just delivered to Putin?

euromaidanpress.com/2019/10/05/mos…

The Firtash story demonstrates how Putin uses Russian state assets to create streams of cash for political allies, and how he exported this model to Ukraine in an attempt to dominate his neighbour, which he sees as vital to Russia’s strategic interests.

reuters.com/article/russia…

Five Stories About How Putin, Organized Crime and Oligarchs Tried to Destroy Naftogaz and Ukraine

H/T @ThomasS4217

biz.nv.ua/naftogaz-vs-ga…