This is such an important area and I'm glad that attention is being paid to #PupilExits.
That said, the EPI's definition of unexplained exit (UE) and the decision to rank LAs and trusts is, I think, flawed. (Thread)
#schools #Education #children
That said, the EPI's definition of unexplained exit (UE) and the decision to rank LAs and trusts is, I think, flawed. (Thread)
#schools #Education #children
UE is itself a very misleading term. It suggests that some explanation has been sought and found lacking, but what it actually refers to is a move that doesn't fit into a category that the researchers can measure based on other data... #PupilExits
...an address is an objective datum available from centralised records, so it constitutes an explanation. A parent not liking the new behaviour policy and taking Jonny to the school down the road is "unexplained" because this explanation can't be coded the same way. #PupilExits
As with attendance as well, ranking places full accountability (and, let's be honest, blame - e.g. "the worst offenders" in Schools Week) on schools for something so often beyond their control. Sometimes parents don't explain their decision, so how could the school? #PupilExits
I think the national data can tell us that something is amiss with #PupilExits. I just think it's wrong to rank LAs & trusts on the basis of their 103 or 27 "UEs" when this relatively small number of individual circumstances and choices creates quite large swings in that ranking.
A few curioisities in the detail of the methodology... #PupilExits
The full report doesn't make a single mention of elective home education. That's such a vital component of any analysis of #PupilExits, I can't think why it would be ignored.
The statistics discount GRT children (the group with by far the highest exclusion rate, so presumably more likely to be off-rolled) with more than one move. No similar statistical control is in place for transience and 'school-hopping' in other communities. #PupilExits
The research has, following feedback, put moves to higher Ofsted category schools in the UE column, but this doesn't seem to be dynamic. Parents might not move a child from a stable 2 to 1, but if a school drops to 3/4 suddenly, one expects a bit of outward movement. #PupilExits
