Profile picture
, 5 tweets, 2 min read
No Brexit deal yet. But talks ongoing, which is positive.

DUP seem to understand deal will be worse than them than May's deal.

ERG seem to understand it may be this or no Brexit.

UK Government seem to think it won't need extension - magical thinking remains?
We don't know the details of the deal but I took a guess here - Northern Ireland in UK Customs zone administered in Irish sea. Questions include - accompanying trade agreement, and what happens while details implemented (aka backstop) prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
Why now? Not the deadline, they come and go. More I think because Johnson boxed himself in on Oct 31 promise, and without prospect of a deal would fail to deliver, and have Parliament take control. Also both sides saw risk of no further movement.
Does it get a majority? Number 10 talking optimistically but really needs DUP or sizeable Labour contingent to say yes, and that's in the balance on both counts. And that's before we see what's in the deal - which will I suspect see Brexit Party allegations of sell out.
A busy few days lie ahead. Let's leave the thread asking the question of just how bad was the decision to prorogue Parliament, which led to multiple defeats for the PM, a Queens Speech no-one noticed, and what may be the PM trying to sell a deal quite similar to the last...
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with David Henig

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK see all

Profile picture
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Finally we have text of a Brexit deal - though to recall we have to combine the old Withdrawal Agreement with the new Ireland protocol, and then add in the new non-binding Political Declaration. What are the main points to think about? 1/
First and most importantly, Great Britain could face a no-deal Brexit in 14 months time. That's the length of the transition period given it hasn't been extended since the original deal failed. An extension of that is possible but of course not guaranteed 2/
The UK then faces a minimum of 14 months abiding by all EU rules and regulations. But in the absence of another agreement there is a Northern Ireland backstop, where the province will be in part in both the UK and EU single markets 3/
Read 16 tweets
Profile picture
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
First view of the text - there is awful lot buried in a list of EU regulations that Northern Ireland will have to follow under the deal. Second, most of the detail on future GB-NI-EU relationship is put into the next stage
Northern Ireland in effect part of the EU Customs territory through this provision - and while the UK can negotiate trade agreements covering Northern Ireland, this will be a complication. Also not clear to me yet if Northern Ireland input eligible for EU trade agreements
Now to try to sum up for @britishchambers trade conference...
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
On Brexit, I may have mentioned this before, but I await legal text (and an actual agreement) to make a proper judgement. It seems that the backstop may have been time limited only in the sense a majority in Northern Ireland would have to vote to end it (unlikely)
The detail of the customs arrangements, how N-Ireland to EU trade works, any accompanying UK-EU FTA, further conditions like level playing field, ultimate arbiter of arrangements, and length of transition period are all areas to watch when we see details.
Once we have the details will also be interesting to see whether there's a revived no-deal / clean break campaign. Because this deal sounds messy, as was always likely to be the case. Or whether a this deal but only with referendum feeling takes root.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
🇺🇸 Miguelifornia
@michaelbeatty3
The President thanks Mexico for their help. Border crossings are down 50% since May, and he gives us a WALL update.
WINNING!!
@realDonaldTrump
"IT'S A TRADE WAR, A TRADE BATTLE, YOU CAN CALL IT ANYTHING YOU WANT." -President @realDonaldTrump updating us on our farmers and China negotiations. #WARRIOR
"We're not dealing through President Macron, people are dealing with us directly. We don't have to go through another Country." President @realDonaldTrump asked if France will help negotiate with Iran next month at the UN..

LIKE A BOSS...
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
#Brexit
EU now see G7 as moment “there will be noise” on Brexit as Johnson holds talks with Juncker/Macron/Merkel/Conte
From Frost meeting last week it was clear UK does not have a plan for new talks
“No deal appears to be UK government’s central scenario,” said senior official
One ambassador said, “there is no desire to negotiate at all,”
UK asking for new EU mandate
“Will [EU] change the mandate? No. Change to what? What is the UK mandate ? There is not one,” said senior official
Frost also admitted that even without the backstop, the ERG could well block a deal
“Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative”
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Tim Durrant
@timd_IFG
When all the #Brexit chat is about parliamentary shenanigans it’s easy to forget that these decisions will have real-world impacts, including a potential #nodeal… here’s a quick look at where #nodeal planning currently stands:
1. First the good news: the Government has struck agreements with the USA, Canada and 8 other countries to ensure flights can continue even in the case of no deal (nothing yet on flights to/from/within EU countries though)

gov.uk/government/new…
2. And the Government’s lottery for road haulage permits has opened – so if you’re a haulage company that wants to transport goods across the EU after a #nodeal Brexit, get your application in now for a 5% chance of securing a permit (h/t @RHANews)

gov.uk/guidance/ecmt-…
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Pieter de Wilde
@pieter_dewilde
Getting Member States involved in #Brexit negotiations will not help the #UK. It will most likely fuel domestic politicization of Brexit in #EU27 countries. This will be detrimental to UK interests.
UK #Brexit strategists and commentators as diverse as @Jeremy_Hunt, @CER_Grant , @anandMenon1 and @fromTGA warn about the dangers of No Deal for British public opinion and call on #EU27 member states to get involved.

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
The British people will hate the EU for a generation, they warn.

The idea/hope is that MS governments will be more willing to give in to British demands. I think this is a flawed argument that overlooks the dynamics of politicization.
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets

Trending hashtags

#GDP #Management #Brexit #challenge #MAGA #timefortruth #SunlitUplands #FPBE #WARRIOR #TTIP #UK #G20 #Hungary #EU27 #Sue #provocative #HarryLeslieSmith #EU #NOR #brexit #Belgium #timefortruths #Brexodus #StopBrexitSaveBritain #HMG
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!