Finally we have text of a Brexit deal - though to recall we have to combine the old Withdrawal Agreement with the new Ireland protocol, and then add in the new non-binding Political Declaration. What are the main points to think about? 1/
First and most importantly, Great Britain could face a no-deal Brexit in 14 months time. That's the length of the transition period given it hasn't been extended since the original deal failed. An extension of that is possible but of course not guaranteed 2/
The UK then faces a minimum of 14 months abiding by all EU rules and regulations. But in the absence of another agreement there is a Northern Ireland backstop, where the province will be in part in both the UK and EU single markets 3/
There will be free movement of goods from the EU to Northern Ireland and vice versa. From Great Britain there will be some sort of system administered at ports where tariffs are paid on goods going onto the EU, but not for final consumption in the province. 4/
The details of how the system between Northern Ireland and GB works will need to be agreed - they have been put into the next phase. It is presumed it can be worked out in 14 months, but there is quite some detail to work through 5/
There are big holes in our understanding of how the next phase would work in the case of the deal being passed, something which is of serious concern to business. What checks for example on goods from N Ireland to GB? 5/
The UK can negotiate trade deals covering Northern Ireland. However bearing in mind that Northern Ireland can receive goods tariff free from EU and GB that negotiating partners might have some concerns. I'm also unsure how N Ireland content in EU exports will be treated 7/
There is a long list of EU regulations Northern Ireland has to follow. It remains the case it will have little say over these, just a joint committee. But there is as flagged an overall provision of consent after 4 years, then 4 more years, then 8 years 8/
This is in one sense time limited - if Northern Ireland votes no then there are 2 years to work out what to do next. But it is generally assumed thast won't happen given it would require consent from both communities 9/
The political declaration contains the aspiration for a future Free Trade Agreement partnership, to be negotiated. However there are specific aims of ensuring data and finacial services equivalence by 2020, reducing the potential cliff edge slightly 10/
However it remains quite possible that there will be a transition period followed by no-deal followed by an FTA, if we think a likely timescale for agreement could be in the region of 5 years. Obviously this means continued uncertainty for business 11/
What about those new trade deals? Well, it may well be tricky to negotiate these at the same time as the EU FTA, especially the one with the US given their timescales and that the UK failed to remove Geographical Indications from the Withdrawal Agreement 12/
The big demand from business will be for clarity about how the Government intends to run subsequent stages of work. This will include a sense of reality on FTA timescales, and more immediately involvement in the way Northern Ireland arrangements are determined 13/
I won't comment on whether the deal will pass Parliament or not. But taking no deal off the table clearly wasn't the hindrance it was claimed to be. Similarly alternative arrangements turned out not be much use in getting a deal 14/
Given the respective red lines though this really was the only deal available, and involved some concessions from UK and EU, but nothing that the DUP wanted for Northern Ireland - GB relations - hence why they can't support 15/
There's much more detail that others will cover, many more questions that can and should be asked. But I'll leave it here in suggesting this is a Withdrawal Agreement very much as the EU envisaged, and the question in the UK needs to be, what's the vision for what's next 16/end
