The first thing to say is that I write this thread as a Remainer, who thinks Brexit is an act of stupidity on the part of the UK. At the same time, I feel that pro-EU campaigners have misjudged the politics of the situation endlessly and may well up getting it wrong again 1/15
2/15 There was, of course, a lot of complacency in the run-up to the 2016 referendum, with people trusting the polls and believing that the populist insurgency couldn’t triumph. This was wrong.
3/15 Since 2016, many Remainers have done their best to obstruct #Brexit, while disingenuously pretending that this is not their objective. This has become increasingly transparent and no longer washes.
4/15 The people who united against a no-deal Brexit are quite obviously opposed to any kind of #Brexit. They argue for a three-month extension, but actually want an endless extension. Again, because this is completely transparent, it’s poor politics at every level.
5/15 A culture has emerged of turning to the courts to fight battles which cannot be won politically. Some cases - such as the original A50 battle and the one over prorogation - involved a principle. But others are purely obstructive and counter-productive.
6/15 The Remainers believed that if they voted down May’s Deal, it would lead to a second referendum or a change of government and that, eventually, #Brexit would be reversed. Many of us warned it was a potential path to a harsher Brexit. We were correct.
7/15 Remainers express surprise that Boris’ deal is less favourable than May’s! This is hardly surprising. Politically, he has to assuage the ERG and win back Farage voters. He was never going to opt for a softer #Brexit than his predecessor.
8/15 Of course, this is also the deal Remainers predicted Boris could never get. He has proved them wrong. The Benn Act was really not intended for this kind of scenario, even though its terms still come into effect in the event of the deal’s rejection.
9/15 Once again, the Remainers think that by rejecting Boris’ bad deal, they will get a general election and a better deal (Corbyn’s fantasy) or a referendum to reverse #Brexit. Both scenarios are, of course, possible, but given the record of misjudgments, not ones to bank on.
10/15 Remainers believe that the EU will offer endless extensions. Merkel, Macron, Varadkar et al are certainly pragmatists. But patience is wearing very thin. The fantasy the EU will do anything to avoid no deal is, bizarrely, an idea the hardcore Remainers share with Brexiters.
11/15 If we do get to a general election, my hunch is that Boris will win it on a platform of ‘getting Brexit done’. He will point to the obstruction of his opponents and have a strong populist platform - particularly having brought back a deal which was again rejected.
12/15 If we do hold a referendum - and I have my douts, because the ballot question, timing and financing are much more messy and complex than people care to admit - Remainers believe they will win. I wouldn’t count on it.
13/15 One of the most extraordinary things about #Brexit is how few people have changed their minds. Polls now show similar leads for Remain as in advance of the 2016 vote. A vindication of the psychological theory of commitment and the desire to show consistency.
14/15 So on Saturday, MPs need to bite the bullet and vote for this flawed deal. Not because it’s great for the UK. It’s not. But because the alternative is very unlikely to bring any kind of more positive outcome. In fact, it may send us on a spiral to no deal.
15/15 But this is 2019. Let’s get real. Boris will probably lose by a vote or two.
